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Mets vs. Reds Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, July 5 (Take New York to Roll in Max Scherzer's Return)

By Matt De Saro

New York Mets starter Max Scherzer.
New York Mets starter Max Scherzer. / Rich Schultz/GettyImages
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The first-place New York Mets continue their three-game series at home against the Cincinnati Reds this afternoon. While both teams play in the National League, that is where the similarities end.

Cincinnati is one of the worst teams this sport has seen in years and is dead last in the NL Central. The Mets, meanwhile, have lived up to the preseason hype and led the NL East over the reigning champion Braves. 

Miracles in sports do happen, and it will take one for the Reds to eke out a win over one of the best teams in the NL. 

Here are the odds for this game from consensus sportsbooks. 

Mets vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, and Total

Run Line

  • Mets: -1.5 (-120)
  • Reds: +1.5 (+100)

Moneyline:

  • Mets: -200
  • Reds: +170

Total:

  • Total 9 (Over -105/Under -115)

Mets vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

I’m going to make the not-so-bold prediction that the Reds and Nick Lodolo are going to get crushed today by New York. Lodolo will make a return to the mound today after a stint on the 60-day IL due to back issues. He made three starts before going on the shelf, two of which were downright awful.

He allowed the Guardians to score five runs over four innings in his MLB debut. Lodolo followed that up with a three-run, five-inning performance against the Padres. He allowed three home runs in those two games. 

Admittedly, Lodolo did pitch well in his third game against the Cardinals with one run over 5 ⅔ innings. But, after such a long time off, I doubt his abilities to shut down such a dangerous offense. 

The Mets currently rank fourth in runs per game, sixth in hits per game, and sport a combined batting average of .256. They don’t strike out much and rank third with a SO rate of just 20 percent. 

But, their offense isn’t even the biggest reason to bet on the Mets tonight. Max Scherzer is also making his return to action after more than a month on the IL with a strained left oblique muscle. In his first season with the Mets, Scherzer is 6-2 with a 2.54 ERA in eight starts. 

The Mets have a massive advantage on both sides of the ball and I see no reason to fade them on the road in this spot. There is no value on the ML so let’s take a chance on New York covering the run line. 

Pick: Mets -1.5 (-120)

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE

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