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Mets vs. Rockies Prediction and Odds for Friday, May 20 (Colorado a Live Dog at Home)

By Ben Heisler

Colorado Rockies manager Bud Black has his team four games over .500 (13-9) at Coors Field this season.
Colorado Rockies manager Bud Black has his team four games over .500 (13-9) at Coors Field this season. / Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
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The Colorado Rockies may be on the verge of breaking out of their May-long slump.

After a 12-9 month of April, Colorado has fallen to 18-19, including 2-8 over their last 10 games.

They did secure a big 5-3 win over the San Francisco Giants their last time out, and hope to keep it going Friday night against the New York Mets tonight.

The Rockies are 13-9 at Coors Field, but the Mets are a National League-best 13-6 on the road. Who's got the edge tonight?

Let's check out the latest odds on the board for tonight's series starter at WynnBET Sportsbook.

Mets vs. Rockies Odds, Run Line, and Total

Run Line:

  • Mets -1.5 (+115)
  • Rockies +1.5 (-140)

Moneyline:

  • Mets -124
  • Rockies +114

Total:

  • 10 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

Mets vs. Rockies Prediction and Pick

I like the Rockies as a short home underdog tonight in large part because of the pitching matchup.

At first glance, Rockies right-handed starter Germán Márquez looks like he's had a rough start to the season. He's 1-3, with an ERA north of 6 through seven starts this season.

But Márquez has also dealt with some bad luck this season; with an expected ERA (xERA) of 4.91, and an expected Fielder Independent Pitching (xFIP) of 3.56. That's an enormous discrepancy to his 6.16 ERA.

For the Mets, right-hander Carlos Carrasco has also been excellent. While is strikeout rate is at its lowest rate since 2013 (7.68 per nine innings), he's done a great job of avoiding the home run ball. Last season, Carrasco averaged 2.01 home runs per nine innings. This year? It's all the way down to 0.66.

One unique note I discovered was from analyst Michael Arinze, who points out that Carrasco has used his changeup as a put-away pitch more often this year, but the Rockies as a team average 4.1 runs above average facing changeups in 2022.

Even with Marquez's struggles, I still expect Colorado to break out the bats vs. Carrasco's changeup, and cover as a short dog in Denver.

LEAN: Rockies ML +114

Follow all of Ben Heisler's betting plays in real-time HERE

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