Mexico Open Picks and Betting Preview (Target Long Hitters in Mexico)

The PGA Tour heads south of the border for an event that's brand new on the Tour circuit; the Mexico Open.

This used to be the week of the WGC-Mexico Championship, but it's now defunct and replaced by the Mexico Open. It's has been a staple on several other tours including the European Tour and Korn Ferry Tour, before now making its PGA Tour debut.

This event proves challenging for bettors for a couple of reasons. First of all, it's an extremely weak field. Jon Rahm serves as the biggest name by far, and there are only a few notable names behind him, including Carlos Ortiz and Abraham Ancer.

The other reason, is that it takes place at Greg Norman Signature Course at the Vidanta Villarta Resort, which has never hosted a professional event, so you can cross "course history" off as a handicapping tool this week.

Let's start by breaking down the top 10 odds via WynnBET to win this week's Mexico Open.

Odds to Win the Mexico Open

• Jon Rahm +500
• Abraham Ancer +1800
• Tiny Finau +2000
• Gary Woodland +2200
• Kevin Na +2200
• Patrick Reed +2500
• Sebastian Munoz +2800
• Aaron Wise +3300
• Cameron Tringale +3300
• Chris Kirk +3300

How to Handicap the Mexico Open

Greg Norman's Signature Course usually plays as a Par 73 for guests of the resort, but two of the Par 5s will be turned into Par 4s for the sake of the event. By all accounts, this course will play fairly easy for Tour pros, so birdie or better percentage should be something we should key in on. If the final score is going to be 20-under or better, everyone in contention will need to score birdies and eagles to keep pace.

The scorecard shows the course being 7,456 yards, so being long off the tee and being solid with your long-irons will likely also be key factors. It also boasts the second most bunkers on Tour, so sand save percentage will also be important.

Finally, if you want a "motivation" angle, Ancer and Ortiz will certainly want to put on strong performances in their home country.

5 Key Stats for the Mexico Open

• Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee
• Approach Proximity from 175-200 yards
• Birdie or Better Percentage
• Sand Save Percentage
• Strokes Gained: Putting

Picks to Win the Mexico Open

Aaron Wise +3300

I think it's best to stay away from the top dogs in this one. Rahm's putting has been terrible, Abraham Ancer has been awful this season, and Tony Finau hasn't put together a full tournament yet, etc. The first golfer on the odds listed that I'd give serious consideration to is Aaron Wise.

Wise ranks 58th in birdie or better percentage on Tour, sixth in Par 3 scoring, 40th in total strokes gained, and 24th in strokes gained: off-the-tee. Considering this is a weak field, he probably ranks near the top in all of those categories among this week's participants. He's also finished 21st or better in two of his last four starts, so I he's been in decent form as of late.

Matt Jones +4000

Matt Jones is long off-the-tee, and can score plenty of birdies, which is exactly what I'm looking for this week. He ranks 73rd on Tour in strokes gained: off-the-tee, but 34th in driving distance, which I think is more important.

He's also 47th in birdie or better percentage, and eighth in holes-per-eagle. He's coming off his best finish of the season, which was a T2 at the Valero Texas Open, which is a tournament that's also hosted at a Greg Norman designed course. Finally, as a cherry on top, he's the second best golfer in the field in strokes gained: around-the-green. While that's not a key stat this week, it's a good thing to keep in mind.

Hayden Buckley +15000

Hayden Buckley is second in the field in strokes gained: off-the-tee this week. First is Jon Rahm, and then it's Buckley. Sure, Buckley ranks outside the top 100 on Tour in just about every other stat, but he drives the crap out of the golf ball which makes him an intriguing bet at a weak-field event where driving seems to be paramount.

His last good finish was at the Corales Puntacana Championship, which also boasted about as weak as a field as this week's Mexico Open. He finished T13 that week, so I think we're worth a sprinkle here.

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.