Miami Dolphins 2021-2022 Season Preview, Odds and Win Totals

It all came down to Week 17 for the Miami Dolphins in 2020.

A win on the road against the Bills was all it would take to clinch a playoff spot for the first time since 2016. Buffalo had already wrapped up the division weeks earlier, and with no bye for the No. 2 playoff seed, it was expected that they'd let their guard down in the final matchup of the year.

Yet rather than celebrating a shot to earn their first playoff victory since the 2000-01 season, Miami was on the outside looking out after a blowout 56-26 loss in Buffalo. 

The Week 17 loss was even more painful considering the growth of the team in the second half. Veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick was replaced in the midst of a three-game winning streak for first round rookie Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins under Tua went 6-3 during the season despite pedestrian numbers at the position: 11 TDs, 5 INTs, 181.4 passing yards/game.

Now entering his second year, Tagovailoa under third-year head coach Brian Flores, as well as new offensive coordinators Eric Studesville and George Godsey will need to showcase similar growth to that of division rival Josh Allen in Buffalo. The leap from year 1 to year 2 can make a massive difference for a quarterback, and the Dolphins believe in Tua to take that jump.

Miami Dolphins 2021 Team Outlook

The Dolphins' key to a continued turnaround in 2021 begins first and foremost with their quarterback. Tagovailoa being healthy for a full offseason, complete with training camp and preseason should help ease the second-year starter into a better rhythm than last year, where he was still recovering from major hip surgery. While Tua was better at Fitzpatrick at taking care of the ball, he'll need to improve on his completion percentage and take more downfield shots with his skill position players. Last year, Tua averaged only 6.3 passing yards per attempt, one of the lowest in the league.

His offensive line will need to form a cohesive unit, with three of the five starters all playing in their rookie season. Miami also drafted another rookie tackle in the second round. If they click, the Dolphins could have one of the youngest and brightest offensive line/quarterback tandems in the NFL, but it's more of an "if" as opposed to a "when."

The Dolphins' run game was solid, but not spectacular last season. Myles Gaskin eventually took control of the starting spot and provided a boost both as a runner and pass catcher in 2020. Gaskin only started seven games, but caught 41 of his 47 pass attempts, averaging 9.5 yards per reception. Miami added former Rams veteran Malcolm Brown to the mix with Salvon Ahmed as well.

Receiver is where the Dolphins made major upgrades. When healthy, free agent signing Will Fuller is one of the most explosive deep weapons in the league. The problem is he's never started more than 13 games in an NFL season in his five years in Houston. Factor in first round draft pick Jaylen Waddle, and the Dolphins have two of the highest graded speedsters both on the outside as well as in inside in the slot. DeVante Parker stayed healthy for the second consecutive season after a breakout 2019, and veterans like Albert Wilson, Jakeem Grant, Mack Hollins and Robert Foster all will contend for opportunities, as well as second-year versatile receiver/scatback Lynn Bowden Jr.

Mike Gesicki remains a strong two-way tight end both in his abilities as a receiver as well as run blocker. Gesicki finished second behind Parker in both targets and receptions a season ago, leading Miami with six total touchdowns.

Defensively, the Dolphins ranked sixth in the NFL in points allowed in 2020, and make a key move this offseason by locking up shutdown corner Xavien Howard to a long-term extension. While interceptions are not the only stat to deem value for members of the secondary, Howard was an absolute ballhawk in 2020 with 10 interceptions to lead the entire NFL. That boosted the Dolphins as the NFL's best team in turning opponents over with 29 total takeaways last season. Now paired with Byron Jones for the second consecutive season, the Dolphins own one of the best cornerback combinations in the league.

Up front, Miami saw a breakout season from defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah, leading the team with nine sacks last year. Along with the anchor in their 3-4 defense, Raekwon Davis, the Dolphins pass rush will look to improve with Jerome Baker and Andrew Van Ginkel taking on even larger roles. The Dolphins also added former division nemesis Jason McCourty after playing the last few seasons in New England alongside his twin brother Devin.

Miami Dolphins 2021 NFL Draft

The Dolphins moved out of the early teens to acquire the Philadelphia Eagles’ spot at No. 6, selecting Alabama wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, reuniting the explosive wideout with his former college quarterback in Tagovailoa. Midway through the first round, the Dolphins added Miami linebacker Jaelan Phillips who should make a key impact off the edge, but has been put far back on the depth chart to start camp.

In the second round, the Dolphins drafted safety Jevon Holland out of Oregon, as well as Notre Dame tackle Liam Eichenberg six picks later at No. 42. In Round 3, Miami added to it’s tight end room with Boston College’s Hunter Long.

Miami Dolphins Team Odds: Division (+340), Conference (+1400), Super Bowl (+2500)

Get a full betting preview for Bears vs. Dolphins for Week 1 of the NFL Preseason

The Dolphins’ futures odds for 2021 are a bit perplexing over at WynnBET Sportsbook. When it comes to their own division, they’re actually listed third in odds behind the Bills (-155) and Patriots (+320) with the New York Jets way behind at +1500.

Yet when it comes to the AFC and Super Bowl, Miami is far ahead of the Patriots in both categories. The Dolphins are +1400 to take home the AFC Championship, ranking slightly ahead of New England at +1500. For the actual championship, Miami is +2500, tied with the Los Angeles Chargers in Super Bowl odds. Interestingly enough, the Patriots fall all the way down to +3500.

Miami Dolphins Regular Season Win Total: 9 WINS | OVER (-140), UNDER (+120)

Ben Heisler: 

Miami is a fascinating team entering a pivotal 2021 campaign. Brian Flores has done a remarkable job in his first two seasons, exceeding expectations both in 2019, when many pundits assumed Miami may not win a game in "Tanking for Tua," and then coming excruciatingly close to a return to the postseason in 2020, still several wins ahead of their projected timeline.

Now there are actual expectations for Miami to return to the postseason, and with those expectations come heavier scrutiny. Many teams embrace having a target on their back, and we saw a glimpse into what can happen when the Dolphins are finally the favorites in their Week 17 blowout vs. the Bills.

Maybe it's not a fair conclusion to arrive at, considering how dangerous the Bills were a season ago, as well as the sample size of one game, but I think it's fair to have concerns about Miami in 2021.

Tua will be better this season, and I think the additions of Fuller and Waddle to provide speed at receiver should help his yards per attempt. But the offensive line is still a gamble, and running back remains a position where it's hard to gauge Myles Gaskin's ceiling because of the amount of games he missed last year.

Defensively, Miami is a strong collective unit, but in the last few seasons, the top tier defenses, especially when it comes to takeaways tend to regress the following year. In 2017, the Ravens led the NFL in defensive takeaways, but fell to 26th the next year. In 2018, the Bears went from 1st to 21st in 2019. The Steelers bucked the trend going from 1st to 3rd, but I expect Miami to finish in the middle of the pack this season.

Ultimately, the likely regression, combined with a far improved conference puts the Dolphins at exactly nine wins for me, which is a slight step back from a season ago, but still in contention for a playoff spot and another winning record. I have them going 9-8 in 2021.

PREDICTION: PUSH

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 9 WINS (+400)

Donnavan Smoot:

Miami won 10 games and surprised a lot of people last year. Between their back and forth quarterback situation and being on the brink of making the playoffs, the Dolphins had an interesting season in 2020.

The Dolphins are once again going to have an interesting season. This is going to be the first full season of the Tua Tagovailoa era and nobody has a clue on how it is going to go. Tagovailoa was able to lead Miami to wins, going 6-3, but his stats weren’t all that impressive. In 9 games, he had 11 touchdown passes to just five interceptions. 

Brian Flores has liked what he’s seen from his quarterback and has opened up the playbook for him as well as pressuring him to be more aggressive. Tagovailoa will have help in that department, with Miami signing Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle. With explosive weapons on the outside, the Dolphins can make a run at the postseason, but it will hinge on whether Tagovailoa can take the next step. 

He will have help on the other side of the ball as well. The Dolphins had one of the most opportunistic defenses in the league last season. They led the league in turnovers and nearly had a top 5 scoring defense. They were 20th in the league in yards allowed, but were still able to be effective. 

The Dolphins should improve this season and bring Miami closer to the top of the division than the bottom. 

PREDICTION: OVER 9 WINS (-140)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 10 WINS (+500)

Peter Dewey: 

The Miami Dolphins surprised a lot of people during the 2020 season by finishing with a 10-6 record fueled by their defense that had an NFL-best 29 takeaways during the season. 

Now, the Dolphins are hoping to build in 2021 with Tua Tagovailoa set for his first full season under center. The No. 5 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft was 6-3 as a starter last season, but he struggled moving the ball down the field and was benched twice in games in favor of veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick. 

For the Tua believers, taking the over on the Dolphins’ win projection seems like a no-brainer, but I’m not in that category. Tagovailoa is going to have to prove he can make the most of DeVante Parker, Will Fuller V, and Jaylen Waddle in Miami’s offense. 

After the Dolphins decided to run it back with Myles Gaskin at running back, a lot of pressure is going to be on Tagovailoa to get the job done. I think he leads Miami to a winning record, but facing a second-place schedule in 2021 should put the Dolphins in line for a slight regression.  

PREDICTION: PUSH

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 9 WINS (+400)

Iain MacMillan:

Ten wins has usually been enough to earn a team a spot in the NFL playoffs, so when the league expanded the postseason to include an additional team in each conference, you would have thought that ten wins would be plenty to secure a playoff berth.

That wasn’t the case for the Miami Dolphins last year, who fell a game short despite finishing with a respectable 10-6 record.

Despite the heartbreaking end to their season, the Dolphins have a lot to look forward to. They seem to have found a gem of a head coach in Brian Flores, and last season they boasted one of the youngest rosters in the NFL. It’s hard to imagine them taking a step back in 2021, especially with Tua Tagovailoa entering his second early under center.

The Dolphins defense was one of the best scoring defenses in the NFL last season, allowing the fourth fewest points per game at 21.1. A big reason for that was their ability to force timely turnovers, as they ranked first in takeaways per game at 1.8. If they can continue that success, and get some more flow from their offense, they should at least win as many games this season as they did in 2020.

PREDICTION: OVER 9 WINS (-140)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 11 WINS (+700)

Will the Miami Dolphins Make the Playoffs? | MISS THE PLAYOFFS (-169), MAKE THE PLAYOFFS (+140)

Ben Heisler: 

A three-team race for the top spot in the AFC East will make this a challenge for the Dolphins to make the postseason despite notable improvements.

Ultimately, there's too much talent on this roster not to be in contention, and I expect both Miami and New England to ultimately hold the final postseason spots at No. 6 and No. 7 this season, both finishing at 9 wins in the division.

Miami moves on with a chance for Brian Flores and company to do something that no Dolphins team has done in 20-plus years: win a playoff game.

PREDICTION: YES (+140)

Donnavan Smoot:

If you asked me a few weeks ago, I would’ve said the Dolphins weren’t going to make the playoffs. However, with the Colts dealing with Carson Wentz’s injury and the bottom of the AFC playoff picture being wide open, I’m rolling with the Dolphins. 

They are going to be competing with the Steelers, Chargers and maybe the Colts for the last two spots. I think they get it done because of the strength of their defense and I do believe Tagovailoa will take a step forward this season. 

PREDICTION: YES (+140)

Peter Dewey:  

The AFC wild card race is going to be a crazy one, and like last season, I think the Dolphins will be right on the fringe as a playoff contender. 

While I predicted that they wouldn't surpass nine wins, I’m going to take them to make the playoffs at +140 because I think it will be a toss up in the final weeks of the season. The Pittsburgh Steelers, Los Angeles Chargers, Indianapolis Colts and others all should be in the same range as Miami this season, and if Tagovailoa takes the next step the Dolphins could sneak into a playoff spot. 

I’m not going to say they’re a guarantee, but at +140 I’m willing to take the gamble that nine wins may be enough to nab the final playoff spot in the AFC. 

PREDICTION: YES (+140)

Iain MacMillan: 

The AFC East still belongs to the Buffalo Bills, so if the Dolphins want to make the playoffs, they’ll have to grab one of three available wildcard spots. Lucky for them, the AFC is top heavy in my opinion and I think 10 wins will be enough to grab one of those wildcard berths this season.

I think there are three playoff teams from the AFC last year that will take a step back in 2021. Those teams being the Tennessee Titans, Baltimore Ravens, and Pittsburgh Steelers, so as long as the Dolphins take another tiny step forward in their progression, they’ll be in the postseason this year.

PREDICTION: YES (+140)

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Every day from the start of NFL Training Camp, the BetSided team of Ben Heisler, Donnavan Smoot, Peter Dewey and Iain MacMillan are breaking down the win totals, playoff and Super Bowl odds for every team in the NFL.

Check back Thursday at 1 p.m. EDT when we preview the betting outlook for the New England Patriots and check out our earlier team-by-team betting previews.

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