Miami (FL) vs. Duke Prediction and Odds for ACC Tournament Semifinals (Hurricanes To Keep High-Scoring Game Close)

Charlie Moore and the Hurricanes take on Duke in the ACC Tournament Semifinals today
Charlie Moore and the Hurricanes take on Duke in the ACC Tournament Semifinals today / Sarah Stier/GettyImages

The 27-5 No.1 Duke Blue Devils withstood Syracuse's best effort and now take on the 23-9 #4 Miami Hurricanes, who overcame Boston College in overtime, in the ACC Tournament Semifinals.

Duke has won seven of eight but is only 3-5 against the spread (ATS) in that stretch, while the Hurricanes have won three in a row and are 6-3 ATS in their last nine.

Miami upset Duke 76-74 in January as 15-point underdogs - can the Hurricanes summon some magic and get another victory or will the Blue Devils exact revenge en route to the finals?

Let's take a gander at the odds from WynnBET to find out:

Miami (FL) vs Duke Odds, Spread and Total


  • Miami: +9 (-110)
  • Duke: -9 (-110)


  • Miami: +375
  • Duke: -500


  • 148.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Miami (FL) vs Duke Prediction and Pick

I wrote over a month ago that the Hurricanes are an incredible underdog bet and they've done nothing to change that since. Dating back to last season, the experienced group is on a 13-2 ATS run as underdogs and have won outright six of their last eight.

Miami relies on an elite offense that protects the ball incredibly well and has several guys that can take over a game in Isaiah Wong, Kameron McGusty, Jordan Miller and Charlie Moore. They're in the 100th percentile in effective field goal percentage over their last five and have a few plays a game that make you say "WOW!"

They'll need that kind of shot-making against a Duke squad that has an even better offense, ranking in the 99th percentile in offensive rating on the season. If the Hurricanes don't keep them on their heels, they won't be able to keep up.

But despite having a strong defense all season, the Blue Devils have struggled on that end recently. They've fallen from the 79th percentile in defensive rating to the 4th in their last five and haven't been able to generate any turnovers. Miami, on the other hand, is in the 98th percentile in steals per game in their last five and are desperate for a huge win to bolster their NCAA Tournament seeding.

The Hurricanes absolutely can win this game outright, so getting nine points is a strong value. I'm not backing down now and will continue to back them as underdogs until the market gives them their proper recognition.

But I'll also be playing the over. It's hit in four straight Duke games as their defense has fallen apart and is 5-1 in Miami's last six. When these teams played in January, the total closed at 152.5 and 150 points were scored. With a total of 148.5 in this one, we're getting tremendous value and I'm inclined to trust oddsmakers' initial assessment. Gear up for a ton of baskets, just hopefully not too many from the Blue Devils.

Pick: Miami (FL) +9 (-110) and OVER 148.5 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.