Miami (FL) vs. USC Prediction and Odds for NCAA Men's Tournament First Round
Only three Pac-12 teams made it to the 2022 NCAA Tournament, and one of those teams is the USC Trojans. They've been awarded a No. 7 seed in the Midwest Region and will face No. 10 Miami from the ACC in the opening round.
USC finished with a 26-7 overall record and a 14-6 record in the Pac-12. They fell to UCLA in the conference tournament semi-final, but will have a chance to redeem themselves this month. They'll face a Miami team that also had a disappointing exit in the ACC tournament, falling to Duke in the semi-final.
Here are the odds via WynnBET for this first round matchup, as well as some analysis, trends, and my prediction for the game.
Miami Florida vs. USC Odds, Spread, and Total
Spread:
- Miami Florida +1.5 (-110)
- USC -1.5 (-110)
Moneyline:
- Miami Florida +105
- USC -125
Total:
- 140.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Miami vs. USC Betting Trends, Insights, and Analysis
Miami
- Regular Season Record: 23-10
- ATS Record: 18-15
- Over/Under Record: 20-13
- SoS: 58th
- Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 114.8
- Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 102.1
- eFG%: 54.2%
- FT%: 74.3%
- 3PT%: 35.3%
- Last Year’s Tournament Result: N/A
- Odds to win National Championship: +20000
USC
- Overall Record: 26-7
- ATS Record:15-18
- Over/Under Record: 14-17-2
- SoS: 54th
- Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 110.5
- Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 96.0
- eFG%: 51.1%
- FT%: 66.6%
- 3PT%: 35.4%
- Last Year’s Tournament Result: Elite 8 (Lost to Gonzaga)
- Odds to win National Championship: +20000
Miami vs. USC Prediction and Pick
The story of this game is the interior play of both teams. 55.5% of USC points and 54.2% of Miami's points come from two-point field goals, which are the 58th and 87th highest marks in the country. That means whichever team will have more success down low, should have the advantage in this matchup.
The glaring difference comes when you look at how the two teams play defense in that area. USC is the second best team in the country in opponent two-point field goal percentage, keeping teams to shooting just 41.7% from down low. Miami, on the other hand, ranks 325th in opponent two-point field goal percentage, allowing teams to shoot 53.9% from two-point range. That's an eye-popping difference of 12.2%.
The dominance down low continues when you look at rebounding rate, where USC ranks 25th and Miami ranks 313th.
The Trojans will win and cover this game with their interior dominance.
Pick: USC -1.5
Check out Iain's detailed 2022 college basketball betting record here.
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