Betsided

Miami Heat Are Disrespected in Current NBA Championship Odds

By Joe Summers

Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro hope to laugh in oddsmakers' faces as they gear up for a postseason run
Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro hope to laugh in oddsmakers' faces as they gear up for a postseason run / Michael Reaves/GettyImages
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All of the following things are true about the Miami Heat:

  • They finished the season with the No. 1 Seed in the East.
  • They feature three borderline stars (Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Kyle Lowry).
  • They have one of the strongest benches in the league.
  • They have a coach with championship pedigree.
  • They have a better team than the one that made the Finals two years ago.
  • They have the fifth-best odds to win the Eastern Conference, per WynnBET.

Wait, what??

Listed at +500 to win the East, Miami is the most disrespected team in the NBA and it's time to fix that.

The Case for the Miami Heat

Much has been made about Miami's skid near the end of the year. The Heat failed to cover the spread in seven straight and tensions boiled over during a mid-game timeout that made its way around the Twittersphere. But everyone seems to be ignoring how they immediately won and covered the spread in six straight to end the year before resting all of their starters in Game 82.

Make no mistake, this team is absolutely a contender and a value at +1200 to win the NBA Finals.

There are several qualifiers that every NBA champion since 2005 has met, and Miami is the only team in the East to check every box.

  • Every champion had a top-eight net rating. The Heat, Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks are the only teams in the East that qualify.
  • Every champion had a top-11 offensive rating. More than half of the Eastern Conference playoff teams meet this criteria, but know that the list includes the Heat.
  • Every champion had a top-11 defensive rating. The Heat, Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers and Toronto Raptors hit this threshold. Sorry, Bucks fans.

Now here's where the Heat really stand out:

  • Every champion had a regular season winning percentage of at least .634. Miami is the only Eastern Conference team that hit this threshold, finishing 53-29 (.646).
  • Every champion had a home winning percentage of at least .707 and a winning record on the road. Miami is the only Eastern Conference team to meet this criteria, going 29-12 at home and 24-17 on the road.

It's certainly possible that whoever wins the East eschews 17 years of data - it's been a weird year, after all. But, I'm not willing to bet on it.

And at the very least, the odds should be taking this history into account. Notice that Philadelphia, who currently has better odds to win the East than the Heat, only meets the offensive rating threshold. The Sixers have absolutely no business being favored over Miami to make the Finals -- it's downright disgraceful.

The Celtics barely missed out on qualifying, as they needed one more home win and two more wins overall to meet the winning percentage criteria. So if you want to say the Celtics should be favored over the Heat, that's fine. But to have four teams ahead of Miami is bananas.

That's alright though -- the Heat prefer to fly under the radar. While sportsbooks may not be properly valuing the loaded squad from South Beach, us bettors sure will be.

Head on over to WynnBET before the world catches on - the Heat at +1200 to win the Finals and +500 to win the East are must-bets at this point. Otherwise, you're spitting in the face of every single champion of the last 17 years. And who wants to do that?

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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