Miami vs. Florida State Prediction and Odds: The Seminoles Have Turned a Corner

Interstate and ACC Conference rivals, the Miami Hurricanes, and Florida State Seminoles are set to do battle Tuesday night at the Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee. Despite not being ranked in the top 25, the Hurricanes are a very dangerous team and the current leaders of the ACC with a 13-3 overall record. Their last game was a big-boy win over then No. 2 Duke in what was their ninth consecutive win. The Canes are also 4-0 against the spread in their first four ACC games. 

On the flip side, the Seminoles have struggled out of the gate and are 8th in the conference with an 8-5 overall record. However, things could be worse after FSU started the season 4-4 Their last game was a 79-70 win over Louisville at home and they held off a late rally by the Cardinals. 

Here are the odds for this ACC showdown, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Miami vs. Florida State Odds, Spread, and Total

Spread:

• Miami +6.5 (-110)
• Florida State -6.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Miami +225
• Florida State -285

Total: 148.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Miami vs. Florida State Prediction and Pick

One major reason to like the Hurricanes in this spot is their recent win over the Duke Blue Devis. Miami pulled off the unlikely win as 15-point underdogs and rewarded ML bettors with a payout around 8/1. The win did not feel like a fluke and the Hurricanes, by my estimation, are much better than their non-ranking suggests. 

Entering Tuesday night, the Canes are the 24th ranked team in the nation in adjusted offensive rating and 37th in overall shooting percentage. They have been even better in conference play with an adjusted offensive rating of 120.8. The Hurricanes are also one of the most careful teams when they have the ball and are 10th in the country in turnovers per game on offense. One area that does worry me, however, is Miami’s defense. In contrast to their offense, their defense ranks outside of the top 250 in points allowed, assists allowed, and defensive assists/turnovers.  

Taking a look at the Seminoles, the team is good on offense but the team lives and dies with their defense. FSU ranks 21st in the nation in turnovers forced and is holding teams to under 69 points per game. After a slow start to the year, it does appear this team is turning a corner and their win over Louisville could be the first step.

I don’t feel great about making a call on either of these teams in this important conference game. I think that both teams get up and put on a show tonight. While the Canes are a defensive-minded team, five of their last six games have gone OVER the total and each of those games saw more than 153 points scored. The total for tonight currently sits at 148.5. 

Pick: Miami & Florida State OVER 148.5 (-105)