Miami vs. Virginia Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Monday, Feb. 5 (Take the points with the Hurricanes)

College basketball betting preview, prediction and best bet for Miami-Virginia. 

Jan 17, 2024; Coral Gables, Florida, USA; Miami Hurricanes guard Matthew Cleveland (0) dribbles the ball against Florida State.
Jan 17, 2024; Coral Gables, Florida, USA; Miami Hurricanes guard Matthew Cleveland (0) dribbles the ball against Florida State. / Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

Miami is back over .500 in ACC play (6-5) after winning three of its last four games. The Hurricanes may be a long way from their AP No. 8 ranking from early in the year, but they’re starting to round into form with high hopes of another NCAA Tournament run after last year’s trip to the Final Four. 

Miami visits Charlottesville Monday against a Virginia squad that is playing its best basketball of the season. Tony Bennett’s club has won six consecutive games behind its typical defensive intensity. Virginia is coming off a 66-65 road win over Clemson and returns home Monday night. 

Here’s the betting preview of Monday’s conference clash with a best bet. 

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Miami vs. Virginia odds, spread and total

Miami vs. Virginia betting trends

  • Miami is 12-8-2 ATS this season
  • Virginia is 12-9-1 ATS this season
  • Miami is 3-2-1 ATS this season as an underdog
  • Virginia is 7-6 ATS this season as a favorite
  • The OVER is 11-11 in Miami games this season
  • The OVER is 9-13 in Virginia games this season 

Miami vs. Virginia how to watch

  • Date: Monday, Feb. 5
  • Game time: 7 p.m. EST
  • Venue: John Paul Jones Arena
  • How to watch (TV): ESPN
  • Miami record: 15-7 (6-5 ACC)
  • Virginia record: 17-5 (8-3 ACC)

Miami vs. Virginia key players to watch


Matthew Cleveland: The 6-foot-7 junior guard returned to Miami’s lineup after missing two games and was a force in the Hurricanes’ 82-74 win over Virginia Tech. Cleveland turned in 15 points and 13 rebounds and has now recorded a double-double in two of his last three games. Cleveland is averaging 14.9 points per game this season. 


Ryan Dunn: The 6-foot-8 sophomore guard averages 9.5 points per game this season, but he’s been most valuable to the Cavaliers on the glass. Virginia likes to play at a slow tempo and set the tone on the defensive end and Dunn leads the team in rebounds at 7.3 per game. Dunn grabbed 10 boards in a gritty road win over Clemson Saturday and now has double-digit rebounds in four of the last five games. 

Miami vs. Virginia prediction and pick

Virginia is 12-0 straight up and 8-3-1 ATS inside the John Paul Jones Arena this season, but can they get a margin against Miami? Virginia has been dominant on defense, ranking No. 11 in overall efficiency, according to KenPom. Virginia has held four of its six opponents over its winning streak to under 60 points. 

Virgini’s defense is No. 22 in effective field goal percentage, No. 22 in turnover percentage and No. 13 in defending shots from 2-point range. Miami’s defense is ranked just No. 115 and No. 124 in effective field goal range, but the Hurricanes actually match up well against Virginia’s offense. 

The Cavaliers excel shooting from the perimeter (No. 38) and Miami’s excellent backcourt is No. 28 in defending from beyond the arc. Miami is vulnerable from inside the arc (No. 280), but Virginia is just No. 268 in shooting from 2-point range.

On the opposing end, Miami can attack Virginia’s top-tier defense from the perimeter. The Hurricanes’ offense is No. 44 overall in efficiency with top-40 metrics in shooting, free-throw percentage and effective field goal percentage. From the perimeter, Virginia’s defense slips to No. 93 in defending the deep ball and Miami makes 9.1 3-pointers per game, which is second in the ACC.

Virginia is at its highest spot after winning six straight, so this number seems a tad inflated. Miami has played well of late and you shouldn’t trust Virginia to pull away playing at the No. 361 tempo in the nation.

Take the points with the Hurricanes. 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.