Michigan State vs. Duke Prediction and Odds for Second Round of NCAA Tournament (Back the Over in Coach K vs Izzo)

The No. 2-seeded Duke Blue Devils look to continue their season under Coach K's reign for another round when they match up against the No. 7-seeded Michigan State Spartans on Sunday afternoon at 5:15 p.m. ET.

Duke cruised in their opening round matchup against Cal State Fullerton, while Michigan State outlasted the Davidson Wildcats in a 74-73 thriller as the Spartans closed on a 16-3 run to end the game.

Can Tom Izzo return his Spartans to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2019? Or will Duke's potential storybook ending for their longtime head coach continue on?

Here are the latest odds for Sunday's West Region second rounder over at WynnBET Sportsbook.

Michigan State vs. Duke Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

• Michigan State +6.5 (-110)
• Duke -6.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Michigan State +220
• Duke -275

Total:

Michigan State vs. Duke Prediction and Pick

Considering the Spartans' barely survived against Davidson, needing a massive run at the end of the game just to win by one, I was a bit surprised at the line that came out, and with both teams often showcasing a clear lack of consistency throughout the season, I'll probably stay away from trying to choose a winner.

Instead, I'll focus on the total, which may surprise many casual bettors to see this number so high for a Michigan State game.

The Spartans are a good defensive team, but it's not a typical Izzo-type of defensive juggernaut squad in March. Michigan State actually ranks higher in adjusted offensive efficiency (35) than defensive efficiency (59).

As for Duke, the Blue Devils have the 5th-most efficient offense in the country, while also ranking top 10 in effective field goal percentage and top 11 in two-point percentage. The Spartans, meanwhile, are an excellent three-point shooting squad; ranking 22nd in the nation.

With Michigan State having Tyson Walker back, along with Joey Hauser helping to get key buckets inside, I don't think Michigan State will struggle to keep up with Duke offensively. It behooves both teams to put their focus on their strengths on that side of the floor, leading to what I expect to be a game that could reach the mid 70's to 80's.

LEAN: OVER 144.5 (-110)

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