Michigan State vs. Indiana Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Sunday, March 9 (Target Total)

Mar 6, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Indiana Hoosiers forward Mackenzie Mgbako (21) shoots as
Mar 6, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Indiana Hoosiers forward Mackenzie Mgbako (21) shoots as / Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Indiana is finishing the regular season on a high note, winners of three straight, as the team tries to catch fire ahead of the Big Ten Tournament.

The Hoosiers are hosting Michigan State on Sunday in the regular season finale with the Spartans needing to keep pace to avoid having any doubts come Selection Sunday. Can IU stay hot as underdogs, or will Michigan State bring Mike Woodson's bunch back down to Earth?

Here's our full betting preview for Sunday's matchup:

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Michigan State vs. Indiana Odds, Spread and Total

Indiana vs. Michigan State Betting Trends

  • Michigan State is 16-13-1 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Michigan State went UNDER in 17 of 30 games this season
  • Indiana has gone OVER in 17 of 30 games this season

Michigan State vs. Indiana How to Watch

  • Date: Sunday, March 10th
  • Game Time: 4:30 PM EST
  • Venue: Assembly Hall
  • How to Watch (TV): CBS
  • Michigan State Record: 18-12
  • Indiana Record: 17-13

Michigan State vs. Indiana Key Players to Watch

Michigan State

Tyson Walker: The senior guard continues to find a way to keep this Spartans team in the hunt come NCAA Tournament time. Fresh off a 19-point outing with five rebounds and five assists, Walker will look to lead Michigan State into the Big Ten Tournament with a bit of momentum.


Xavier Johnson: Johnson's impact on the Hoosiers is immense. His ability to provide another useful ball handler on the floor has reignited the IU offense. He has been in a limited role, but has dished out at least five assists in two of the three games and has made a three for the otherwise hopeless Hoosiers perimeter offense.

Michigan State vs. Indiana Prediction and Pick

Indiana, even with Johnson on the floor, is still a poor perimeter offense, which is going to be impactful against the elite Michigan State interior defense. The Spartans don't allow much inside with its length in the front court to challenge the likes of Kel'el Ware, allowing the second highest three-point rate in Big Ten play.

If the Hoosiers are forced to chuck from distance, this offense is going to flounder. The unit is shooting 33% from deep in Big Ten play on the second lowest rate, reliant on getting inside to finish.

Meanwhile, Michigan State's offense continues to struggle. The team is refusing to shoot three's, 345th in three-point rate over the last nine games. The team is intent on getting inside or settling for mid-range twos, but the team is 295th in two-point field goal percentage in that time span.

Given each defense is built to slow down the other, I'll side with the under on Sunday afternoon.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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