Iowa and Michigan State find themselves in the middle of the Big Ten conference hierarchy this season, potentially heading in opposite directions.
The Hawkeyes finally notched a signature victory, going on the road to beat Ohio State by double digits, while Michigan State dropped a home game to Illinois, making it four of five losses for Sparty.
Can Tom Izzo get his team back on track? Will Fran McCaffrey's excellence at Carver-Hawkeye Arena continue? Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook:
Iowa vs. Michigan State Odds, Spread and Total
- Michigan State: +6 (-110)
- Iowa: -6 (-110)
- Michigan State: +225
- Iowa: -280
Total: 153 (Over -110/Under -110)
Iowa vs. Michigan State Prediction and Pick
It's hard to find a better team at home than Iowa since McCaffery took over in 2010. The team is 110-73-4 against the spread (ATS) in Iowa City in that time period, the best mark of power conference teams over the last decade plus.
However, this line feels like a bit of an overreaction after closing as a 5.5-point underdog at Ohio State over the weekend. While Michigan State's offense may be a bit overvalued, ShotQuality rates the Spartans offense as 66th in the country and believes their record is more like a 13-13 team rather than their actual record of 18-8, the offense is set up for some success against a porous Iowa defense.
The Hawkeyes are terrible on the defensive glass, bottom 100 nationally, and foul at an alarming rate in conference play. The Spartans have a physical front court with Gabe Brown and Marcus Bingham that draw fouls at a high rate and as a team hit 80% of their free throws.
I believe Iowa is a bit overvalued in this spot, but I'm not rushing to back the Spartans given their poor play, I'd rather play the over, which I peg closer to 157.
Both teams are inside the top three in average offensive possession length in conference play and I see a ton of possessions and foul shots for each side. Further, another Iowa trend to keep an eye on: the team is 13-3-1 to the over at Carver-Hawkeye and are 15-5-1 as a favorite. In games that are projected to be played on Iowa's terms, the game typically flies over.
PICK: OVER 153, play to 154.5
All of Reed's college basketball plays can be tracked here, his best bets column for college basketball is 66-61-3 for +1.96 units.