Michigan State vs. Iowa Prediction and Odds (Betting Value on the Total)

Iowa and Michigan State find themselves in the middle of the Big Ten conference hierarchy this season, potentially heading in opposite directions.

The Hawkeyes finally notched a signature victory, going on the road to beat Ohio State by double digits, while Michigan State dropped a home game to Illinois, making it four of five losses for Sparty.

Can Tom Izzo get his team back on track? Will Fran McCaffrey's excellence at Carver-Hawkeye Arena continue? Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Iowa vs. Michigan State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

• Michigan State: +6 (-110)
• Iowa: -6 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Michigan State: +225
• Iowa: -280

Total: 153 (Over -110/Under -110)

Iowa vs. Michigan State Prediction and Pick

It's hard to find a better team at home than Iowa since McCaffery took over in 2010. The team is 110-73-4 against the spread (ATS) in Iowa City in that time period, the best mark of power conference teams over the last decade plus.

However, this line feels like a bit of an overreaction after closing as a 5.5-point underdog at Ohio State over the weekend. While Michigan State's offense may be a bit overvalued, ShotQuality rates the Spartans offense as 66th in the country and believes their record is more like a 13-13 team rather than their actual record of 18-8, the offense is set up for some success against a porous Iowa defense.

The Hawkeyes are terrible on the defensive glass, bottom 100 nationally, and foul at an alarming rate in conference play. The Spartans have a physical front court with Gabe Brown and Marcus Bingham that draw fouls at a high rate and as a team hit 80% of their free throws.

I believe Iowa is a bit overvalued in this spot, but I'm not rushing to back the Spartans given their poor play, I'd rather play the over, which I peg closer to 157.

Both teams are inside the top three in average offensive possession length in conference play and I see a ton of possessions and foul shots for each side. Further, another Iowa trend to keep an eye on: the team is 13-3-1 to the over at Carver-Hawkeye and are 15-5-1 as a favorite. In games that are projected to be played on Iowa's terms, the game typically flies over.

PICK: OVER 153, play to 154.5

All of Reed's college basketball plays can be tracked here, his best bets column for college basketball is 66-61-3 for +1.96 units.