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Michigan State vs. Iowa Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 5

Two teams struggling on offense meet in Big Ten action?

By Reed Wallach

Michigan State quarterback Noah Kim (10) hands the ball to running back Nathan Carter (5) during the
Michigan State quarterback Noah Kim (10) hands the ball to running back Nathan Carter (5) during the / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK
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Iowa's offense got shutout on the road against Penn State, and now the Hawkeyes face another team struggling on offense in Michigan State.

Both teams lost badly in Week 4 and will look to get on track in Big Ten play against one another. Neither Iowa nor Michigan State's offense has looked competitive this season, how will that play out in Week 5?

Here are the odds and our best bets:

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Michigan State vs. Iowa Odds, Spread and Total

Iowa vs. Michigan State Betting Trends

  • Iowa is 2-1 against the spread (ATS) this season as a favorite
  • Michigan State is 0-2 ATS as an underdog
  • Both teams have gone UNDER in three of four games

Michigan State vs. Iowa How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, September 30
  • Game Time: 7:30 PM EST
  • Venue: Kinnick Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): NBC
  • Michigan State Record: 2-2
  • Iowa Record: 3-1

Michigan State vs. Iowa Key Players to Watch

Michigan State

Noah Kim: Kim was benched in the team's 31-9 loss to Maryland last week at home after completing 18-of-33 passes for 190 yards with one touchdown pass and two interceptions. As of now, Kim is the starter, but he will need to figure it out soon before interim head coach Harlon Barnett makes a move to another QB.

Iowa

Cade McNamara: McNamara looks injured with a lingering hamstring issue stemming from a preseason injury. He hasn't completed more than 17 passes in any game this season and hasn't had a game in which he ran for positive yards yet. The team is leaning on its defense once again.

Michigan State vs. Iowa Prediction and Pick

Find out which bets I fired on early in the week with two of my best bets!

It's tough to trust either offense at the moment. Both teams are outside the top 100 in terms of EPA/Play and have a passing game grade outside the top 100, according to Pro Football Focus.

Both defenses have looked rock solid thus far, each top third nationally in terms of success rate allowed and EPA/Play. The edge in this game likely comes from Iowa's secondary, headlined by future NFL player Cooper DeJean. The team is top 25 in success rate against the pass and grade out as a top 20 secondary in terms of coverage grading by PFF.

The Hawkeyes defense has a knack for generating turnovers and making plays on special teams, ranking second in PFF's special teams grading, which likely gives them an edge against an undisciplined Michigan State team that is outside the top 100 in penalties per game.

There's nothing redeemable about this Iowa offense, and I'm not sure I can trust the team to cover a spread of over a touchdown, but I will opt for the under in this game as neither offense can be counted on to score three touchdowns.

Michigan State is likely going to struggle on the road against the best defense it will have faced this season, but Iowa won't have the passing game to take advantage against the Spartans like Washington and Maryland were able to do.

Fade both offenses on Saturday night.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!

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