Michigan State vs. Maryland Prediction and Odds (Back Sparty to Continue Road Cover Streak)
By Jon Helmkamp
Michigan State has been a little bumpy in recent weeks, dropping a pair of games, albeit with one of them to a very tough Illinois team. After taking care of business against Michigan in their last game, they’ll now take on a Maryland team that will look to play spoiler.
Let’s start with the odds via WynnBET.
Michigan State vs. Maryland Odds, Spread and Total
Spread:
- Michigan State -3.5 (-110)
- Maryland +3.5 (-110)
Moneyline:
- Michigan State -165
- Maryland +140
Total:
- 137.0 (Over -110 | Under -110)
Michigan State vs. Maryland Prediction and Pick
Michigan State has been one of the better teams in the country this year, currently sitting at No. 13 with a 16-4 record. Of their four losses this year, three have been to ranked opponents — Kansas in the season opener, Baylor at a neutral site, and Illinois away.
If you’re looking for a team that can shoot, Michigan State is it. They rank eighth in the country with a 39.1% three point percentage, aided by the fact that the ball never stops moving. They rank 13th in assists per field goal made and 13th in assists per game.
This team can also play defense. They hold opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 44.8%, which ranks 16th, and a three point percentage of 29.4%, which ranks 27th.
The Spartans are a lethal team if they could clean up two areas of weakness. Firstly, Michigan State is great at rebounding on the defensive end. They pull in 27.1 defensive rebounds per game, which ranks 12th. However, they are weak on the offensive glass, ranking 115th in offensive rebounds per game while allowing the 12th-most defensive rebounds per game. They need to clean that up.
Their other major weakness? They turn the ball over way too much, and they don’t generate many turnovers either. They rank 277th in turnovers per game, giving the ball away 14.2 times per contest. They also rank 310th in opponent turnovers per game, taking the ball away only 11.0 times per game.
However, in this matchup with Maryland, I don’t expect it to matter much. Maryland isn’t a potent team, only averaging 70.1 points (166th) and 11.7 assists (248th) per game. They rank 244th in effective field goal percentage and 252nd in three point percentage.
Where Maryland might be able to keep this interesting is their ability to rebound on the defensive end. They average 26.2 defensive rebounds per game. Unfortunately for Maryland, they only average 5.7 steals per game, which ranks 259th in the country. Ball security is the main way to pressure this Michigan State team, and they don’t excel there.
Michigan State is 5-0 against the spread on the road this year, and I’m betting that we see that continue tonight.
Pick: Michigan State -3.5 (-110)
You can find all of Jon Helmkamp’s picks here.