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Michigan State vs. Michigan Prediction and Odds (Is Sparty Undervalued?)

By Reed Wallach

Michigan State's Tyson Walker, left, celebrates after making a 3-pointer against Purdue.
Michigan State's Tyson Walker, left, celebrates after making a 3-pointer against Purdue. / Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA
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Two in-state rivals go at it on Tuesday when Michigan State travels to Ann Arbor to face Michigan.

The Wolverines can really use a win to strengthen their NCAA Tournament case against their rival Spartans, who are coming off of a win against Big Ten title contender Purdue. Michigan State is going to be part of the Tournament field and will also look to move up the seeding line by completing the season sweep of their arch nemesis.

Here are the odds for this Big Ten clash from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Michigan State vs. Michigan Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Michigan State: +5 (-102)
  • Michigan: -5 (-102)

Moenyline:

  • Michigan State: +185
  • Michigan: -205

Total: 143 (Over -110/Under -110)

Michigan State vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick

It's tough to get a read on either of these teams as the Spartans had dropped three straight before scoring a massive win over Purdue at home over the weekend. Meanwhile, Michigan is the biggest disappointment in the country this season and is without head coach Juwan Howard for the rest of the regular season. Michigan is 2-3 over its last five and has a tough end to its schedule against three teams inside KenPom's top 35, starting tonight.

Neither team is adept at forcing turnovers, each bottom five in conference play, but the Spartans do have the size to hang with Wolverines big man Hunter Dickinson. Seven-foot big man Marcus Bingham is a fantastic rim protector and the Spartans allow the 32nd lowest field goal percentage at the rim this season, per Haslemetrics, which is massive against a normally elite Michigan offense. Dickinson and co. are top 10 at the rim this season.

Meanwhile, the Michigan defense has struggled mightly this season, unable to slow down anyone at the rim, outside the top 200 in that mark. The team is great on the defensive glass, but they don't expose Michigan State's glaring flaw which is protecting the ball (Tom Izzo's team is worst in the Big Ten with a near 20% turnover rate).

I find myself leaning towards the Spartans to keep it close. While the situational spots point towards Michigan, desperate for a tournament-caliber victory and revenge after losing by 16 in East Lansing in January, I can't get to this spread.

LEAN: Michigan State +5

All of Reed's college basketball plays can be tracked here, his best bets column for college basketball is 77-74-3 for -1.35 units.

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