Michigan State vs. Michigan Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 9

The Battle for the Paul Bunyan Governor's Trophy is back on the line from Ann Arbor, Mich. this weekend when No. 4 ranked Michigan host their in-state rival Michigan State from "The Big House" at 7:30 p.m. ET.

The Wolverines enter at 7-0, firmly in the mix for a spot in the College Football Playoff, while the Spartans are just 3-4, 1-3 in the Big Ten after an 11-2 campaign a season ago.

Mel Tucker has won both matchups against Jim Harbaugh since arriving at Michigan State, knocking off the Wolverines in dramatic fashion 37-33 a season ago with both teams undefeated, as Kenneth Walker III put up a monster performance with 197 rushing yards and five touchdowns.

Can the Spartans shock the college football world and make it three straight wins over Michigan, and 11 in the last 15 games? Here's how the oddsmakers have this one playing out.

Michigan State vs. Michigan Odds, Spread and Total

Michigan State vs. Michigan Betting Trends

• Spartans are 0-2-0 ATS on the road
• Wolverines are 3-2-0 ATS at home
• Underdogs are 5-2 ATS in the last seven matchups
• Michigan State 6-1 in last seven games at Michigan, 12-2 ATS in last 15 games

Michigan State vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick

Despite the Wolverines being the far superior team, this is simply too many points to lay if you're betting the favorite.

The Spartans come off a bye after a grind-it-out comeback victory at home vs. Wisconsin in double overtime, getting back to a balanced attack on offense, flipping the field defensively, and winning the turnover battle.

The Wolverines are elite defensively, holding teams to 17 or fewer points in six games this year, and while I don't project the Spartans to win a massive upset, there is a formula on how to keep them in the game and cover. By keeping the clock churning and not forcing themselves into 3rd and long situations, the Wolverines can't pin their ears back and rush the quarterback in obvious passing downs.

Mel Tucker is fully aware of this, having started his Spartan coaching career 2-0 vs. the Wolverines.

On this week's episode of "The Early Reed," both BetSided's Reed Wallach and I discussed the matchup, and how despite the Wolverines' having the upper hand in talent, the Spartans have consistently found ways to keep this game close.

Over the last 19 matchups, Michigan is just 9-10 straight up, and 5-14 against the spread, covering 26.3% of the time. Since Harbaugh took over, he's just 2-5 ATS in this game and 3-4 SU.

I'll take my chances with Sparty to cover a colossal number in a conference rivalry game.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.