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Michigan State vs. Ohio State Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 11

Buckeyes looking to stay undefeated in the Big Ten.

By Jovan Alford

Nov 4, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes running back TreVeyon Henderson (32)
Nov 4, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes running back TreVeyon Henderson (32) / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA
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The Michigan State Spartans will head to Columbus, OH, on Saturday to play the No. 1-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes. Michigan State snapped its season-long six-game losing streak last week with a 20-17 win at home over Nebraska.

Meanwhile, the Buckeyes outscored Rutgers last week 28-7 in the second half after being down 9-7 at halftime en route to a 35-16 win. Ohio State is trying to stay perfect in the Big Ten East division, which is competitive with Michigan and Penn State both vying for a spot in the College Football Playoff and Big Ten title game.

Here are the odds and our best bet for Michigan State vs. Ohio State:

Michigan State vs. Ohio State Odds, Spread and Total

Ohio State vs. Michigan State Betting Trends

  • Michigan State is 4-4-1 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Michigan State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games against Ohio State
  • Ohio State is 3-1 ATS at home this season
  • The UNDER is 6-2 in Ohio State’s last eight games against Michigan State

Michigan State vs. Ohio State How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, Nov. 11
  • Game Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Ohio Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): NBC
  • Michigan State Record: 3-6
  • Ohio State Record: 9-0

Michigan State vs. Ohio State Key Players to Watch

Michigan State

Nathan Carter: The sophomore running back started the season with back-to-back 100-yard rushing games against Central Michigan and Richmond. However, Carter hasn’t had one since, and it was also the last time he scored a touchdown. For the Spartans to keep it close, they will need the 5-foot-10 running back to have a breakout performance. This season, Carter has 387 rushing yards and averaging 3.8 yards per carry in conference play.

Ohio State

TreVeyon Henderson: The junior running back has been shredding opposing Big Ten defenses over the last three games. Henderson is recording 131.3 rushing yards per game over that span and has scored three rushing touchdowns. 

Last week against the Scarlet Knights, he produced 128 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries. It wouldn’t be surprising to see another 100-yard game from the junior running back this week, as the Spartans allow 128.6 rushing yards per game.

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Michigan State vs. Ohio State Prediction and Pick

The Buckeyes have had a couple of slow starts against Rutgers and Maryland over the last five weeks, but they play better in the second half almost every time.

Ohio State has dominated the Big Ten thus far this season, scoring 30 points and defeating its opponents by 19.2 points per game.

However, Ohio State is only 3-3-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite, with the UNDER hitting in five of those seven games. The Buckeyes should easily defeat Sparty on Saturday night, but I don’t see them covering this large number.

Therefore, the best play here is the under on the total.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change

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