Michigan State vs. Purdue Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Big Ten Quarterfinal (Bet the Boilermakers' Offense)

College basketball betting preview, prediction and best bet for Michigan State vs. Purdue. 

Purdue Boilermakers guard Braden Smith (3) drives to the basket.
Purdue Boilermakers guard Braden Smith (3) drives to the basket. / Alex Martin/Journal and Courier / USA

Tom Izzo’s month is here and the Spartans are going dancing for the 26th consecutive season, securing another March Madness bid after a 77-67 win over Minnesota Thursday in the Big 10 Tournament. Can they keep it rolling against top-seeded Purdue? 

The Boilermakers, a projected No. 1 seed, are bidding for back-to-back conference tournament championships for the first time in program history. Can they pull away from the Spartans as a modest favorite in Minneapolis? Here’s the betting breakdown of the matchup with a best bet. 

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Michigan State vs. Purdue Odds, Spread and Total

Michigan State vs. Purdue Betting Trends

  • Michigan State is 17-14-1 ATS this season
  • Purdue is 16-13-2 ATS this season
  • Michigan State is 2-3-1 ATS as an underdog this season
  • Purdue is 14-13-2 ATS as a favorite this season
  • The OVER is 14-18 in Michigan State games this season
  • The OVER is 21-10 in Purdue games this season 

Michigan State vs. Purdue How to Watch

  • Date: Friday, March 15 
  • Game time: 12 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Target Center
  • How to watch (TV): Big Ten Network
  • Michigan State record: 19-13
  • Purdue record: 28-3 

Michigan State vs. Purdue Key Players to Watch

Michigan State

A.J. Hoggard: The 6-foot-4 senior guard was perfect in Michigan State’s first-round win over Minnesota. Hoggard had a team-high 17 points on 6-of-6 shooting from the field and a 4-for-4 performance at the free-throw line to help the Spartans pull away. 


Braden Smith: While Zach Edey rightfully grabs the majority of headlines, Smith has been great this season feeding the big man down low. Smith is fifth in the nation in assists per game (7.2) while adding 13 points and 5.9 rebounds a night. Smith has two double-doubles over the last four games. 

Michigan State vs. Purdue  Prediction and Pick 

This isn’t the same Purdue team that lost to a No. 16 seed. This Boilermakers club is No. 2 in the nation in 3-point shooting, according to KenPom, with the ability to knock down shots from the perimeter in addition to Edey’s dominance in the paint. 

Purdue has four players with over 40 three-pointers this season, but make no mistake, Purdue’s bread-and-butter is still down low. Purdue is No. 58 in the country in 2-point shooting. Taking advantage of Michigan State’s defense could be from deep, though. 

The Spartans are just outside the top-50 in defending 2-point shots, but drop to No. 111 against 3s. On the glass, Purdue is No. 8 in offensive rebounding percentage and could thrive with second-chance opportunities against a Michigan State defense that is No. 157 in rebounding. 

Purdue’s offense shot 51% from the field and 50% from 3-point range in its 80-74 win over Michigan State March 2. Take the Boilermakers to go over their posted team total, a number they’ve hit in seven of the last eight games. 

PICK: Purdue Team Total OVER 74.5

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.