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Michigan State vs. Purdue Prediction, Odds, and Key Players for Saturday, March 2

By Iain MacMillan

Feb 25, 2024; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) reacts during the
Feb 25, 2024; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) reacts during the / Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
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If the Illinois Fighting Illini lose to the Wisconsin Badgers this afternoon, the No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers will have a chance to clinch the Big Ten regular season title when they host the Michigan State Spartans tonight.

Purdue is still haunted by last year's loss to a No. 16 seed in last year's NCAA Tournament, but over the course of the next month they have a chance to exorcise those demons, starting with a regular season conference title.

Meanwhile, Michigan State is looking to lock in its spot in the NCAA Tournament and an upset win tonight will certainly do exactly that.

Let's dive into the odds for this Big Ten showdown and then I'll break down my best bet for the game.

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Michigan State vs. Purdue odds, spread, and total

Michigan State vs. Purdue betting trends

  • The UNDER is 6-2 in Michigan State's last eight games
  • Michigan State is 0-5 ATS in its last five games played at Purdue
  • Michigan State is 6-0 straight up in its last six games played on a Saturday
  • The OVER is 10-4 in Purdue's last 14 games
  • Purdue is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games played in March

Michigan State vs. Purdue how to watch

  • Date: Saturday, March 2
  • Game time: 8 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Mackey Arena
  • How to watch (TV): FOX
  • Michigan State record: 17-11 (9-8 in Big Ten)
  • Purdue record: 25-3 (14-3 in Big Ten)

Michigan State vs. Purdue key players to watch

Michigan State

Malik Hall: Not only is Malik Hall Michigan State's second leading scorer, averaging 12.9 points per game, but he's also going to handle the bulk of defending Zach Edey of the Boilermakers. If Michigan State wants any chance of pulling off the upset, Hall, and the rest of the Spartans are going to need to at least slow down the best player in the country.

Purdue

Braden Smith: Zach Edey is the best player for the Boilermakers but Braden Smith might be the biggest key for this offense. He's averaging 7.3 assists per game along with 12.7 points and 5.8 rebounds. Edey can only be the player he is if he gets the ball in his hands at the right time which is exactly what Smith provides.

Michigan State vs. Purdue prediction and pick

Purdue is too good of a team when playing at home and I expect the Boilermakers to overpower Michigan State in this game. They have an average scoring margin of +23.9 when playing on their home court which is the fifth best mark in the nation.

I'm not sure what happens to Michigan State's defense, but it falls apart when playing on the road. The Spartans' opponents effective field goal percentage foes up over 10% from 43.3% at home to 54.2% on the road. That's bad news for them today considering they're playing one of the most dominant home teams in college basketball.

I'll lay the points with Purdue on Saturday night.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!

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