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Michigan vs. Indiana Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 6

By Ben Heisler

Indiana's Dasan McCullough (0) and Aaron Casey (44) celebrate sack back in Game 2 of the season.
Indiana's Dasan McCullough (0) and Aaron Casey (44) celebrate sack back in Game 2 of the season. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY
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The Indiana Hoosiers look to get some momentum back after two straight road losses when they return home for a nationally televised "Big Noon" game at home against the No. 4 Michigan Wolverines this Saturday.

The Hoosiers started off the season 3-0, one more win more than their entire total from 2021. However, they've struggled to find consistency even in their victories. All three wins featured comebacks in the second half to Illinois, Idaho, and Western Kentucky.

Meanwhile, Michigan remains undefeated following their 27-14 beatdown of Iowa in Iowa City last week. This Saturday marks their second consecutive road game after four straight at home to begin the season.

Here's how the oddsmakers see this matchup going down from Bloomington.

Michigan vs. Indiana Odds, Spread and Total

Michigan vs. Indiana Prediction and Pick

Give credit to Indiana head coach Tom Allen for playing Michigan relatively tough throughout the years he's been in charge. Since Allen joined Indiana's staff as defensive coordinator under Kevin Wilson back in 2015, and then head coach in 2016, here's how the games have gone.

  • 2015: Michigan 48, Indiana 41 (Bloomington)
  • 2016: Michigan 20, Indiana 10 (Ann Arbor)
  • 2017: Michigan 27, Indiana 20 (Bloomington)
  • 2018: Michigan 31, Indiana 20 (Ann Arbor)
  • 2019: Michigan 39, Indiana 14 (Bloomington)
  • 2020: Indiana 38, Michigan 21 (Bloomington)
  • 2021: Michigan 29, Indiana 7 (Ann Arbor)

The Hoosiers have covered the spread against the Wolverines in five of their last seven games despite just one win, and the bulk of the time, it's been letdowns in the second half that have cost them the game.

The Hoosiers and quarterback Connor Bazelak must find a way to get more Jekyll than Hyde from their offense. Last week at Nebraska, they got Bazelak in rhythm in the second quarter as IU scored all of their 21 points, but couldn't keep it going in the second half.

Meanwhile, since Michigan went to sophomore J.J. McCarthy as their starting quarterback, he's been the most accurate passer in football. Indiana ranks 20th in takeaways/game, and if they can find a way to force him into his first turnover of the season, that could be a key factor in keeping them in the game.

Because of their relative consistency in hanging around with Michigan over the last several years, along with the Wolverines' playing their second straight game on the road, there is a path for Indiana to hang around long enough to cover a much bigger number.

Michigan has gone 0-4-1 on the under this season, and with a line that extends past three touchdowns, I'll back the Hoosiers to give us some source of entertainment with a closer game than most might expect.

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