Michigan vs. Iowa Prediction, Odds, Against Spread, and Over/Under for BIG 10 Championship Game

The Big Ten experienced a massive shake-up last weekend when the No. 5 Michigan Wolverines beat the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes for the first time since 2011. “The Game” was long dominated by OSU and, as a result, the Big Ten East’s spot in the Conference Championship Game. 

Now, for the first time in five years, the Buckeyes are not going to win the conference. Instead, the Iowa Hawkeyes and Wolverines will square off this weekend at Lucas Oil Stadium. 

Jim Harbaugh has finally led his team to the promised land and he's now one win away from the College Football Playoff. It would be their first solo conference title since 1997 and turn Harbaugh’s coaching career in Michigan around in one game. 

The Wolverines will have to contend with the Hawkeyes stifling defense that ranks sixth in yards per play and fifth in turnover margin at 1.08 per game. It will be interesting to see how effective they are against the Wolverines’ tenth-ranked scoring offense averaging 451.2 yards per game. 

Here are the current odds for the Big Ten Championship game, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Michigan vs. Iowa Spread and Over/Under

Spread:

• Michigan -11.0 (-110) 
• Iowa +11.0  (-110) 

Moneyline:

• Michigan -440
• Iowa +350

Total:

• 44.0 (Over -110/Under -110)

Michigan vs. Iowa Betting Trends

• The Wolverines are 7-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last eight games. 
• The Wolverines are 11-1 straight up (SU) in their last 12 games. 
• The Wolverines are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games against the Hawkeyes. 
• The Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the West Division.  
• The Hawkeyes are 12-6 ATs in their last 18 games. 
• The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five games between these two teams. 
• The Hawkeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against the East Division. 

Michigan vs. Iowa Prediction and Pick

Throughout the season, Michigan was constantly underestimated by the oddsmakers and ended up leading the nation with a 10-2 ATS record. The offense is one of the most efficient around and managed to put up all those points and yards while mostly running the ball. Hassan Haskins is the star of this rushing attack but the contributions of Blake Corum cant be ignored. They are the epitome of a one-two punch and have proven difficult for teams to handle. 

While the Hawkeyes did manage to make it to the show, they are the inferior team here. They struggle to move the ball on offense and average less than 300 yards per game overall. That puts them outside of the Top-120 in terms of yards per game and their 25.7 PPG mark ranks them 81st. Defense is the name of the game for Iowa and they rank in the Top-10 in terms of opponent’s points per game (17.3), yards per game (315.8), and points per play (0.240).

So, while the Wolverines have a massive advantage on offense, they are equal if not better than Iowa on defense. I think that Michigan and Harbaugh have been waiting too long for this day to go out and half-ass it. I'm betting they are going to run all over the Iowa Hawkeyes, cover, and punch their ticket to the CFP. 

Pick: Michigan Wolverines -11.0 (-110)