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Michigan vs. Louisville Prediction and Odds (Wolverines' Primed to Upset Cardinals)

By Ben Heisler

Michigan Wolverines guard Laila Phelia shot 5-7 for 14 points in their last game vs. South Dakota. The Wolverines are 5-point underdogs to Louisville.
Michigan Wolverines guard Laila Phelia shot 5-7 for 14 points in their last game vs. South Dakota. The Wolverines are 5-point underdogs to Louisville. / William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports
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The final round of the Elite Eight tips off from Wichita when the No. 1 seeded Louisville Cardinals tip-off against the 3-seed Michigan Wolverines.

Michigan survived a slugfest from No. 10 South Dakota in the Sweet 16, squeezing out a 52-49 win. Meanwhile, Louisville had perhaps their most impressive offensive performance of the tournament so far, taking care of No. 4 Tennessee 76-64; led by 23 and 20 from Hailey Van Lith and Emily Engstler.

The Wolverines already fell to the Cardinals in blowout fashion this year, but have they found their footing to advance to Minneapolis for this year's Final Four?

Here are the latest consensus odds for the 9 p.m. EST Regional Final from Wichita.

Michigan vs. Louisville Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Michigan +5.5 (-110)
  • Louisville -5.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Michigan +210
  • Louisville -260

Total:

  • 128.5 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

Michigan vs. Louisville Prediction and Pick

With Michigan nearly getting knocked out in the previous round to an impressive South Dakota squad, I sense that they're being a bit disrespected in their chances to not only cover, but win outright in this matchup.

The Wolverines and Coyotes play similar styles of ball, each moving at a very slow pace offensively to set up opportunistic shots both behind the three-point line, or inside the paint. Michigan also had an awful day offensively, shooting just 17.6% from 3-point range, and under 50% from inside the arc. Even against a good defensive team in Louisville, look for some regression to the mean and improved shots from beyond the arc.

For Louisville, their overall season numbers do look good on paper. They rank fifth overall, and 7th in both offensive and defensive rating this season, via HerHoopStats, and via CBB Analytics, are in the 9th percentile in offensive rating over their last five games.

Ahead of the start of the tournament, there was some surprise when Louisville was the final No. 1 seed in the tournament, but to their credit, they've backed up the seed and have advanced this far without much of a fight. Even if they win, I don't anticipate any kind of blowout against a Wolverines team that's as battle-tested as any team in the country.

HerHoopStats projects Louisville by 4.5 points, with further incentivizes the opportunity to grab an extra point with a Michigan team that I genuinely believe could pull off the upset. I don't think I'm ready to sprinkle on the moneyline, but I fully expect them to cover.

PICK: Michigan +5.5 (-110)

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