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Michigan vs. Michigan State Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Tuesday, Jan. 30 (Value on Total)

By Reed Wallach

Michigan State's Tyson Walker, right, slaps hands with Tre Holloman after the Spartans win over
Michigan State's Tyson Walker, right, slaps hands with Tre Holloman after the Spartans win over / Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA
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Two in-state rivals do battle on Tuesday night in Big Ten action.

Michigan State is looking to erase a slow start to the season and build on a strong analytical profile, but needs to take care of business against the likes of Michigan, one of the worst teams in the Big Ten this season. The Wolverines are dealing with Dug McDaniel's suspension still, who is not able to play in road games, and it's starting to ware on the team's record.

Will Sparty be able to come through as big favorites on Tuesday with the Wolverines down its lead ball handler? Here's how I'm eyeing this Tuesday matchup:

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Michigan vs. Michigan State Odds, Spread and Total

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Michigan State vs. Michigan Betting Trends

  • Michigan is 6-14 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Michigan State is 10-9-1 ATS this season
  • Michigan is 2-5 ATS as an underdog
  • Michigan has gone OVER in six of seven games as an underdog

Michigan vs. Michigan State to Watch

  • Date: Tuesday, January 30th
  • Game Time: 9:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Jack Breslin Students Events Center
  • How to Watch (TV): Peacock
  • Michigan Record: 7-13
  • Michigan StateRecord: 12-8

Michigan vs. Michigan State Key Players to Watch

Michigan

Jaelin Llewellyn: With McDaniel not playing road games, a lot more pressure falls on Princeton transfer Llewellyn, who scored 16 points in the blowout road loss to Purdue last week. He also played extended minutes against Maryland (another road loss), but is a dangerous shooter in a limited sample and will look to continue building on more minutes in McDaniel's place.

Michigan State

Tyson Walker: Walker is feeling it from beyond the arc, shooting 43% from three in Big Ten play and up to over 40% from deep on the year, while also playing lockdown defense. He is taking more than a third of the Spartans' shots this season as he continues to shoulder a serious workload. Given he's facing a poor defense, this can be another big outing for the guard.

Michigan vs. Michigan State Prediction and Pick

Without McDaniel, Michigan loses its No. 1 offensive threat that is leading the team in both shots taken and assist rate. Predictably, Michigan is scoring nearly 24 points fewer per 100 possessions when McDaniel is off the floor, per Hoop-Explorer.

However, the defense has also seen a massive hit, allowing more than 22 points per 100 possession, including a staggering 46% from three.

Michigan State can name its total here, but the defense gives me pause. This Sparty defense hasn't been stellar in Big Ten play, right around the middle of the pack and is allowing the second highest three-point rate in Big Ten games.

Even with McDaniel off the floor, Michigan has had a similar three-point volume, so I believe the team can push into the 60's in this one to help get the game over the total.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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