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Michigan vs. Ohio State Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 13

By Reed Wallach

Nov 12, 2022; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) throws during
Nov 12, 2022; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) throws during / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA
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The Game has plenty on the line in this iteration as Ohio State and Michigan each enter with a clear path to the College Football Playoff.

The Buckeyes, who lost last season for the first time since 2012 to their bitter rival Michigan, will look to restore form in their biggest test of the season with a win. Ohio State is No. 2 in the College Football Playoff rankings while Michigan is No. 3, looking to make their second consecutive appearance in the CFP at the expense of their rival.

It's the biggest game of the year and there is intrigue all over. Let's dig into The Game.

Michigan vs. Ohio State Odds, Spread and Total

Michigan vs. Ohio State Betting Trends

  • Ohio State had won eight straight rivalry matchups before last seasons loss, the most in school history
  • Michigan has not won in Columbus since 2000
  • Ohio State is 4-2-1 against the spread (ATS) this season at home
  • This is the first time this season Michigan has been an underdog
  • Ohio State has gone OVER in eight of 11 games
  • Michigan has gone UNDER in eight of 11 games this season (one push)

Michigan vs. Ohio State Prediction and Pick

As discussed on this week's Early Reed with Alex Gletiman of BuckeyeHuddle.com, both teams enter this game severely wounded.

On the Michigan side, starting running back and Heisman Trophy contender Blake Corum left last week's game early with a knee injury and his backup Donovan Edwards has missed the last handful of games with what is reportedly a hand injury. Meanwhile, the team has been without star tight end Erik All and other TE Luke Schoonmaker has been nursing an injury. Lastly, standout offensive lineman Trevor Keegan has missed the last two games. We won't learn much leading up to the game from coach Jim Harbaugh, but this is all stuff to monitor.

As for Ohio State, preseason No. 1 wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba has hardly played this season with a hamstring injury, but the emergence of Marvin Harrison Jr. has negated that. Meanwhile, running back TreVeyon Henderson has battled injuries all season and Miyan Williams was carted back to the locker room two weeks ago.

However, OSU has the depth to withstand these injuries. The team has showcased different ways to win all season, both through the air with the second best passing offense on an EPA/Play basis this season, and on the ground with an offensive line that is fifth in line yards and a ground game that is second in yards per carry. Even with a third string running back potentially, Dallas Hayden ran for 147 yards last week against Maryland.

As for the other side, a hobbled Corum is a crushing blow for this Michigan offense. The team has not been tested at all this season and has been living ahead of schedule due to an effective ground game. However, this will be the toughest defensive line they have faced all season, the Buckeyes are second in limiting yards per carry and 41st in tackles for loss.

If Michigan is behind schedule, it will force J.J. McCarthy to throw, and I'm skeptical that he will take advantage against a potentially soft Ohio State secondary. Michigan hasn't had to throw much this season to get by the second easiest strength of schedule in the country, ranking outside the top 100 in pass plays of more than 10 yards and outside the top 90 in pass yards of more than 20 yards.

On the other side, the Ohio State passing game will be the toughest test this Michigan secondary has faced this season. The only time the Wolverines faced a plus passing game was Maryland, a team that racked up nearly 400 total yards and scored 27 points in Ann Arbor.

Sure, you can say that Ohio State just let up 30 to that same Maryland team, but the Wolverines don't have the explosive pass catchers on the outside to challenge the Buckeyes.

Even if the Michigan defense holds down the Buckeyes for the first half, the team is second in EPA/Play this season, I believe that a wounded group of skill position players will put too much pressure on McCarthy that the Wolverines eventually wilt away.

I think Ohio State wins this one convincingly and moves onto the Big Ten title game. I personally make the Buckeyes around 10-point favorites, which is where they were in the lookahead markets just a few weeks ago.

Track all of Reed's bets at Betstamp HERE!

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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