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Michigan vs. Penn State Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 11

Complete betting preview for Michigan's huge game against Penn State.

By Reed Wallach

Oct 7, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) runs the
Oct 7, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) runs the / Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
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Michigan takes its undefeated season on the road to face Penn State in Happy Valley on Saturday afternoon.

The Wolverines have won each game they've played this season by an average margin of 31 points, looking the part as the best team in the country. They haven't faced a ranked opponent, however, and will face an elite one in the Nittany Lions on Saturday. Can the Wolverines prove they aren't a product of weak competition and a true National Championship caliber team?

Here's how I'm looking to bet on this top 10 matchup. You can also check out my weekly column where I pick EVERY ranked team's games here!

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As for how I'm betting this game...

Michigan vs. Penn State Odds, Spread and Total

Penn State vs. Michigan Betting Trends

  • Penn State is 7-2 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Penn State didn't cover in its lone game as an underdog
  • Michigan is 3-0 ATS on the road this season
  • Michigan has gone OVER in five of nine games
  • Penn State has gone OVER in six of nine games

Michigan vs. Penn State How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, November 11th
  • Game Time: 12:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Beaver Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): FOX
  • Michigan Record: 9-0
  • Penn State Record: 8-1

Michigan vs. Penn State Key Players to Watch

Michigan

J.J. McCarthy: McCarthy has been arguably the best quarterback in college football this season. He has the third-highest opponent-adjusted EPA/Play of any individual quarterback, meaning he is adding nearly as many points to his teams' output due to his performance than any player in the country. He is completing more than 75% of his passes and hasn't thrown an interception since Week 3 against Bowling Green.

Additionally, he has thrown only eight passes in the fourth quarter this season with Michigan blowing out its competition.

Penn State

Drew Allar: Allar is in his first season as the starter and it's showing in a big way as the Nittany Lions haven't been able to get anything going downfield for him. Overall, Allar is averaging less than seven yards per pass attempt with only nine big-time throws this season, per Pro Football Focus. Overall, about 30% of Allar's throws have been more than 10 yards down the field and he's completing 47% of those passes.

Michigan vs. Penn State Prediction and Pick

As noted in my early week deep dive, I fancy the Michigan side quite a bit come Saturday afternoon.

I've been banging the Michigan-is-the-best-team-in-the-country drum all season long. The team has arguably the best quarterback in the country and will face a worse-than-the-numbers-indicate secondary in PSU that has failed in its few tests this season.

Penn State's defense has put up monster numbers overall, but we saw it look middling against a pedestrian Ohio State offense. Looking at the data, we see the team's defensive profile is a bit overrated. When the team has played a half-decent passing game, the numbers don't grade out so nicely.

Penn State's coverage grade over the balance of the season rates this group as a top 25 group, but when you zoom in on the four times it's played a national average or better passing game in terms of EPA/Play, the team's numbers are far worse. Against West Virginia, Ohio State, Indiana, and Maryland, the Nittany Lions have a coverage grade of about 61, which would put them outside the top 125 when scaled out across the entire season.

Against a vulnerable secondary, I expect McCarthy to continue to cook. The 6'3" signal-caller has made serious strides as a downfield passer this season as well. He has thrown more than 37% of his passes further than 10 yards down the field and is completing 66% of those passes with 19 big-time throws to three turnover-worthy plays according to Pro Football Focus.

Meanwhile, the PSU offense isn't equipped to challenge the Wolverines' defense. To take down a team that is top 10 in success rate on both sides of the ball, you need to hit explosive plays and generate turnovers. While the Nittany Lions are second in the nation in turnovers gained (20), the team has one of the lowest explosive play rates in the country.

Some may point to Michigan not playing a formidable opponent as a reason to knock them, but I believe it's generating value on Saturday's point spread. I can't trust Penn State to sustain drives against Michigan's sturdy defense where I believe McCarthy can stretch the field vertically to generate separation and another convincing win that will jumpstart his November Heisman campaign.

I envision Michigan wins 27-13.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!

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