Michigan vs. Villanova Prediction and Odds for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 (Wolverines Can't Keep Up with Cats)
By Reed Wallach
The South Region Sweet 16 gives us a rematch of the 2018 NCAA Tournament National Championship game.
No. 11 seed Michigan has looked more like their preseason title contender selves, beating No. 6 Colorado State and No. 3 Tennessee behind back-to-back impressive second half runs.
They now face No. 2 Villanova, who had little issue to start March Madness. The Wildcats have one of the most potent offenses in the country and will test the Wolverines defense on Thursday night.
Here are the odds for this Sweet 16 showdown from WynnBET Sportsbook:
Michigan vs. Villanova Odds, Spread and Total
Spread:
- Michigan: +4.5 (-110)
- Villanova: -4.5 (-110)
Moneyline:
- Michigan: +175
- Villanova: -215
Total: 135.5
Michigan vs. Villanova Analysis
Michigan
- Overall Record: 17-14
- ATS Record:13-18
- Over/Under Record: 18-13
- SoS: 3rd
- Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 114.2
- Defensive Efficiency: 98.5
- eFG%: 52.3%
- FT%: 74.6%
- 3PT%: 34.0%
- Last Year’s Tournament Result: Elite 8
- Odds to win National Championship: +6500
Villanova
- Overall Record: 26-7
- ATS Record:15-18
- Over/Under Record: 14-17-2
- SoS: 7th
- Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 117.9
- Defensive Efficiency: 93.8
- eFG%: 52.0%
- FT%: 82.3%
- 3PT%: 35.9%
- Last Year’s Tournament Result: Sweet 16
- Odds to win National Championship: +1300
Michigan vs. Villanova Prediction and Pick
There is no denying that Michigan has the talent to hang with almost any team in the country. We saw glimpses of what could've been this season with the Wolverines, centered around star big man Hunter Dickinson, who combined for 48 points and 15 rebounds on 69% shooting.
However, I'm not sure the team can hold up against Villanova, who may gash Juwan Howard's team in the pick-and-roll. Nova's shot making from all over the floor, top half of the country in both 3-point and 2-point percentage as well as the best free throw mark in the nation, is going to prove too much for Michigan, who has dealt with bouts of inconsistency from the perimeter.
Dickinson has the ability to dismantle the Villanova frontcourt who lacks a player of his size, but the team's matchup zone may protect them from getting dominated inside.
Villanova's defense makes it difficult to get inside, allowing the 22nd further proximity of shots, per Haslemetrics, and I can't trust Michigan's shot making to keep up with Villanova's stable of shooters -- five guys shoot over 35% from beyond the arc.
I'm going to wait to see where this line goes, but I'm leaning towards Jay Wright's Wildcats to advance to the Elite 8 and pull away late.
LEAN: Villanova -4.5
You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!
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