Middle Tennessee State vs. Western Kentucky Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 5
By Reed Wallach
Week 5 college football action gets started on Thursday night with Middle Tennessee traveling to take on Western Kentucky in Conference-USA action.
Austin Reed was the nation's leading passer in 2023, and is putting up massive numbers yet again for the Hilltoppers pass-happy offense. The team will face Middle Tennessee, who has stumbled out of the gate this season amidst a difficult schedule.
Can Western Kentucky's defense justify its standing as a decent sized favorite at home on a short week after falling to 2-2 last week? Let's take a look at this matchup as WKU hosts 1-3 Middle Tennessee State.
Check out my early week thoughts on two small home favorites, can Oregon State get its first PAC-12 win against Utah?
Middle Tennessee State vs. Western Kentucky Odds, Spread and Total
Western Kentucky vs. Middle Tennessee State Betting Trends
- Western Kentucky is 2-2 against the spread (ATS) this season
- Middle Tennessee is 1-3 ATS this season
- Middle Tennessee hasn't had a total above 52 this season
- Western Kentucky hasn't had a total below 58 this season
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Middle Tennessee State vs. Western Kentucky How to Watch
- Date: Thursday, September 28
- Game Time: 7:30 PM EST
- Venue: Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
- How to Watch (TV): CBS Sports Network
- Middle Tennessee State Record: 1-3
- Western Kentucky Record: 2-2
Middle Tennessee State vs. Western Kentucky Key Players to Watch
Middle Tennessee State
Nicholas Vattiato: The Blue Raiders are passing the ball at a top 30 percentage this season, and Vattiato has done a decent job in his first full year as the starter despite playing two SEC defenses. The quarterback is completing 71% of his passes, but the team is struggling down-to-down to move the ball donwnield as he is averaging less than six yards per dropback.
Western Kentucky
Austin Reed: WKU is fourth in pass rate this season, led by the 2022 national passing leader. Reed may not top the country this year, but the Hilltoppers will likely enjoy the drop in talent on the opponent's defense after facing Ohio State and Troy the past two weeks. MTSU struggles to stop the pass and Reed had little issue last season, passing for 278 yards in a 35-17 win against the Blue Raiders.
Middle Tennessee State vs. Western Kentucky Prediction and Pick
This game is shaping up to be a high scoring affair based on how both defenses have fared this season.
Both teams have really struggled to stop elite teams on the schedule, and while conventional wisdom may say we don't have a good gauge for how these two teams will fare against one another, more apt competition, I disagree.
Western Kentucky's defense is in dire straits, the team is 125th in EPA/Play, which includes allowing more than seven yards per play to FCS foe Houston Baptist at home. While I don't rate the Middle Tennessee offense that highly, Vattiao has been able to make plays in this pass-first offense and also leads the team in rushing yards.
He has been smart with the ball, fine checking the ball down if the first read isn't there, and if his accuracy does dip, the clock will be stopped due to incompletions.
On the other side, this should be another big game for Reed, who gets to face a MTSU defense that struggled against an air-raid style offense last week, allowing Colorado State to score 31 points on a 0.43 EPA/Dropback, which grades out as an 87th percentile passing game when compared to lst season, per gameonpaper.com.
Both teams are average in terms of pace, but both defenses are going to be scrambling to slow down the aerial attack of both teams, leading to a higher scoring game.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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