Betsided

Bet Mike Tomlin to Run Circles Around Jeff Saturday in Steelers-Colts Monday Night

By Ben Heisler

Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has thrived as an underdog his entire career, going 48-30-5, covering 61.5% of the time since 2007.
Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has thrived as an underdog his entire career, going 48-30-5, covering 61.5% of the time since 2007. / Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
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The 4-6 Indianapolis Colts are off to a better start in the Jeff Saturday era than many might have anticipated.

After stunning the Las Vegas Raiders in his head coaching debut at any level, not just the professional, the Colts fought tooth and nail at home last week against the Philadelphia Eagles; losing by just one 17-16.

Now, they host the 3-7 Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football in what on paper looks to be their easiest matchup in Saturday's first three games. Do the oddsmakers agree?

Here are the latest odds for Monday's primetime showdown in Indy:

Steelers vs. Colts Odds, Spread and Total

Steelers vs. Colts Odds, Spread and Total Movement in NFL Week 12

The Colts opened as 3-point favorites at the start of the week; moving down to 2.5 in the early morning on Wednesday, November 22. The total of 39-39.5 remained relatively consistent depending on which book opened at their respective numbers.

Steelers vs. Colts Prediction and Best Bet

The first two games of Jeff Saturday's coaching career have been about as impressive as can be, given that he truly came from zero head coaching experience. There's two schools of thought to this...

On one hand, it could be a nod to Saturday being a brilliant football mind who knows how to inspire his team while also putting the staff around him in the best position to succeed. On the other hand, perhaps the job isn't as mind-blowingly complicated as most NFL head coaches would like us to believe!

I would estimate the true answer is somewhere in the middle.

That's where Mike Tomlin comes in. A pillar of consistency and winning throughout his entire career, one of the longest tenured coaches in the league comes into this game 157-91-2 in his career to Saturday's 1-1 mark; albeit 2-0 against the spread (ATS). But Tomlin can match him toe-to-toe there as well.

Since 2007, Tomlin is 48-30-5 ATS as an underdog, and 39-44 straight up as a dog as well! Both of those winning percentages are by far and away the best in the NFL during that span.

As far as the game itself goes, the Steelers' defense is night-and-day better with the return of T.J. Watt to the defensive front. Via Daniel Valente (@StatsGuyDaniel), in the seven games without him, Pittsburgh collected only eight total sacks, five takeaways and allowed 25.3 PPG. In the three games he's been out there, Pittsburgh has 11 sacks, nine takeaways and brought their opponent PPG down by 3, and that's after allowing 37 to Joe Burrow and the Bengals in Week 11.

One last bit of food for thought? Pittsburgh has been a Monday Night train since Tomlin took over.

I don't mind Pittsburgh on the moneyline, but in the event their rookie quarterback goes haywire late, I'll take the +2.5 for some insurance.

Follow all of Ben's betting plays in real-time HERE!

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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