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Minnesota vs. Illinois Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 7

By Reed Wallach

Minnesota's Tanner Morgan throws a pass against Michigan State during the first quarter on Saturday,
Minnesota's Tanner Morgan throws a pass against Michigan State during the first quarter on Saturday, / Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA
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The Big Ten West is arguably the toughest division to decipher in college football.

Every team is still in the mix for a Big Ten Championship bid and Saturday's matchup in Champaign, Ill. will help sort out the top of the division when Minnesota travels to face Illinois. The Gophers come off a bye week and should get star running back Mohamed Ibrahim back, while Illinois is hopeful that quarterback Tommy DeVito can play after suffering an injury against Iowa last week.

Minnesota enters as a considerable road favorite as questions around DeVito linger, is there a valuable bet to make? Let's assess this Big Ten showdown:

Minnesota vs. Illinois Odds, Spread and Total

Minnesota vs. Illinois Betting Trends

  • Minnesota is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Illinois is 4-2 ATS this season, 1-0 as an underdog
  • Illinois is 1-3 to the OVER at home

Minnesota vs. Illinois Prediction and Pick

This line may look confusing to some with Minnesota laying nearly a touchdown to a ranked Illinois team, but this number has been blown out due to the questions around DeVito, who has kept the Illini offense on schedule this season.

The team is 50th in success rate this season and the drop off from the Syracuse transfer to Arthur Sitowski was apparent in the second half of the Iowa victory. Sitkowski completed 13-of-19 passes for 74 yards as the Illini didn't find the end zone.

Iowa has an elite defense and Minnesota is no slouch either, ranking fifth in defensive success rate. If Sitkowski draws the start, there's a chance this number isn't accounting for the drop off enough.

While writing this on Tuesday, I have my eye on the under. Both teams play at a bottom 15 tempo in the country and each defense should have the edge. Minnesota's offense has been above expectations this season, but Illinois defense should be up to the test, allowing less than four yards per play this season living in the opponents backfield (top 10 in sacks this season).

The total is below 40 for good reason, and I don't see either team cracking 20 points due to formidable defenses and a snail's pace.

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