Minnesota vs. Michigan Prediction and Odds for Thursday, Jan. 4

College basketball betting preview, prediction and for Minnesota vs. Michigan in Big Ten action.

Dec 29, 2023; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA;  Michigan Wolverines guard Dug McDaniel (0) dribbles
Dec 29, 2023; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines guard Dug McDaniel (0) dribbles / Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
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Michigan and Minnesota meet in Big Ten action on Thursday night in Ann Arbor.

The Wolverines bolster a high octane offense around Dug McDaniel, but the defense has kept them on the fringes of the NCAA Tournament discussion. However, the team can pad its stats against Minnesota team that has a lofty record against soft competition. How should we bet it? Here's our best take on it:

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Minnesota vs. Michigan Odds, Spread and Total

Michigan vs. Minnesota Betting Trends

  • Minnesota is 12-1 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Minnesota has only been an underdog three times, 2-1 in those instances
  • Michigan is 5-8 ATS this season
  • Michigan has gone OVER in 11 of 13 games this season

Minnesota vs. Michigan How to Watch

  • Date: Thursday, Jan. 4
  • Game Time: 9:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Crisler Center
  • How to Watch (TV): Peacock
  • Minnesota Record: 10-3
  • Michigan Record: 6-7

Minnesota vs. Michigan Key Players to Watch

Minnesota

Dawson Garcia: Garcia returned from a three-game absence in the team's most recent game, scoring 12 points while grabbing six rebounds. The former Marquette and North Carolina big man has been awesome for Ben Johnson's group, scoring more than 17 points per game and seven rebounds.

Michigan

Dug McDaniel: The Wolverines guard is enjoying a big season in Ann Arbor, scoring 19 points per game while dishing out five assists. Despite only being 5'11", McDaniel has been the engine of one of the conference's best offenses, but the team needs to get better on defense to make a run in the postseason.

Minnesota vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick

The Wolverines record is under .500, but the team is far superior to the Gophers, indicated in the point spread.

This should be a good spot for the home team to get a win and cover as Minnesota is due a ton of shooting regression. The defense is allowing opponents to shoot eight percent worse than expectation at the rim this season, per ShotQuality. With the excellence of McDaniel getting into the teeth of the defense and Michigan's interior offense, 38th in two-point percentage and 88th in field goal percentage at the rim.

It's also worth noting that Michigan has played an incredibly difficult schedule to date, playing six teams inside KenPom's top 60 and another three inside the top 100. While the Wolverines are far from elite, the team is likely better than its record given it's competition.

Meanwhile, Minnesota has played four teams inside KenPom's top 100, losing three of four with its only win coming at home.

I believe the Gophers get exposed against an elite offense and struggle to keep up on the road.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!