Minnesota vs. Purdue Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Thursday, Feb. 15 (Trust the Boilermakers' Offense)

College basketball betting preview, prediction and best bet for Minnesota-Purdue.
Feb 10, 2024; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Purdue Boilermakers guard Lance Jones (55) celebrates a basket against Indiana.
Feb 10, 2024; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Purdue Boilermakers guard Lance Jones (55) celebrates a basket against Indiana. / Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
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Can Purdue pull off an upset over Minnesota? 

Of course, the No. 2 Boilermakers are nowhere near underdogs at Mackey Arena. Purdue is a 17-point favorite Thursday night. The upset bid is against the spread. Minnesota has been the most profitable ATS team in the nation, going 20-3 against the number, for an absurd cover percentage of 87%. The next closest team is Troy at 76.2% (16-5-1 ATS). 

Minnesota’s actual record is nothing to look twice at. The Golden Gophers are sixth in the conference and are projected to miss the NCAA Tournament for the fifth consecutive year. Can they hang within the number in West Lafayette on Thursday?

Here’s the betting preview for the conference clash with a best bet. 

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Minnesota vs. Purdue odds, spread and total

Minnesota vs. Purdue betting trends

  • Minnesota is 20-3 ATS this season
  • Purdue is 14-8-2 ATS this season
  • Minnesota is 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season
  • Purdue is 13-8-2 ATS as a favorite this season
  • The OVER is 12-11 in Minnesota games this season
  • The OVER is 16-8 in Purdue games this season 

Minnesota vs. Purdue how to watch

  • Date: Thursday, Feb. 15
  • Game time: 8:30 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Mackey Arena
  • How to watch (TV): Big 10 Network
  • Minnesota record: 15-8 (6-6 Big 10)
  • Purdue record: 22-2 (Big 10)

Minnesota vs. Purdue key players to watch

Minnesota

Dawson Garcia: After starting his collegiate career with one-year stints at Marquette and North Carolina, Garcia has found his groove at Minnesota. In two seasons with the Golden Gophers, he’s averaging 16.2 points per game, including a career-high 17.3 this season. He was 7-of-8 from the field for 18 points to go with 7 rebounds in Sunday’s 90-85 loss to Iowa. 

Purdue 

Lance Jones: Of the many impact pieces of Purdue’s lineup, Jones has been great of late, scoring 20-plus points in three of the last five games. Jones went 8-of-14 in back-to-back games, combining for 46 points in wins over Northwestern and Wisconsin. He’s trying to bounce back from a poor offensive showing in Saturday’s 20-point win over Indiana, scoring just 7 points on 1-of-7 shooting over 28 minutes. The senior guard is averaging 12.8 per game this year. 

Minnesota vs. Purdue prediction and pick 

Can you dare try to get in the way of Minnesota’s historic covering rate? After losing against the spread in back-to-back games in January, Minnesota has covered in six consecutive games and hasn’t been this big of an underdog all season. 

Minnesota, 10-2 ATS as an underdog, is No. 37 in KenPom and is one of the best shooting teams from inside the arc (No. 21) in the nation. Purdue’s defense ranked No. 14 in KenPom, is 68th in defending 2-point shots and is better on the perimeter (No. 40). Minnesota’s offense struggles with protecting the rock, ranking No. 299 in steal percentage, but that’s not Purdue’s strength. The Boilermakers are fifth in the Big 10 in opponents’ field goal percentage but are No. 327 in turnover percentage. 

Purdue’s offense shows no signs of slowing down, ranked No. 2 overall in efficiency with top-15 rankings in effective field goal percentage, 3-point shooting, and block percentage. Minnesota’s defense is respectable, ranking fifth in the Big 10 in scoring (68.6 points per game), but has struggled on the road, giving up 78.1 points per game in Big 10 play. They’ll face a Purdue offense that is scoring 91.3 points per game at home against league opponents. The cat’s out of the bag when it comes to Minnesota’s insane covering streak. Instead of going against the Golden Gophers, bet on Purdue’s offense to go over its team total. 


Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.