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Minnesota vs. Wisconsin Prediction and Odds (Regression is Coming in Madison)

By Iain MacMillan

Wisconsin is set to face Minnesota in Sunday Big Ten basketball action.
Wisconsin is set to face Minnesota in Sunday Big Ten basketball action. / Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports
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After a hot start to the season, the Minnesota Golden Gophers have lost five of their last six games. Things won't get any easier for them today as they hit the road to take on No. 11 Wisconsin, who is 7-2 in conference play.

Not only has Wisconsin exceeded expectations this season, but if good teams win and great teams cover, than it's safe to crown the Badgers a great team. They're 12-7 against the spread heading into today's Big Ten matchup.

Let's take a look at the odds for the game via WynnBET.

Minnesota vs. Wisconsin Odds, Spread, and Total

Spread:

  • Minnesota +11.5 (-110)
  • Wisconsin -11.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Minnesota +490
  • Wisconsin -690

Total:

  • 134.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Minnesota vs. Wisconsin Betting Trends

  • Minnesota is 2-6 in its last eight games.
  • The OVER is 5-0 in Minnesota's last five games.
  • Minnesota is 2-18 SU in its last 20 games at Wisconsin.
  • Wisconsin is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games.
  • The OVER is 5-0 in Wisconsin's last five home games.

Minnesota vs. Wisconsin Prediction and Pick

Minnesota's recent rough stretch has had a lot to due with injury troubles. Leading scorer, Eric Curry, is still questionable for today's game with an ankle injury after missing their three previous games.

Even with Curry's status in the air, I'm going to back Minnesota to cover the spread as an underdog. What Wisconsin has achieved so far this season is impressive, but its numbers don't back up its record and I expect regression in the coming weeks.

The Badgers are 244th in the country in effective field goal percentage, 153rd in opponent effective field goal percentage, and 173rd in rebounding. Those aren't the types of numbers you'd expect from a team that is 16-3 on the season. In contrast, Minnesota is 91st, 104th, and 332nd in those statistics.

Admittedly, Wisconsin will have a significant rebounding advantage, but Minnesota's defense and shooting numbers are actually better than Wisconsin's, yet the Golden Gophers are 11.5-point underdogs? I don't see it.

Give me Minnesota to cover this number, and if Eric Curry ends up playing, I wouldn't be shocked if they win outright.

Pick: Minnesota +11.5

Iain is 42-42-1 (-2.35 units) this season in his college basketball picks. Follow them here.

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