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Mississippi State vs. Alabama Prediction and Odds (Value on the Under)

By Reed Wallach

Feb 9, 2022; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide guard JD Davison (3) reacts after making a three-point hsot
Feb 9, 2022; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide guard JD Davison (3) reacts after making a three-point hsot / Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
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Alabama continues to look for consistency as they head into the final stretch of their SEC schedule as they remain at home after beating Arkansas over the weekend, this time playing Mississippi State on Wednesday night.

The Bulldogs have struggled punching above their weight class and on the road this season. Let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook and find the best bet for this SEC showdown:

Mississippi State vs. Alabama Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Mississippi State: +6 (-110)
  • Alabama: -6 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Mississippi State: +200
  • Alabama: -260

Total: 150 (Over -110/Under -110)

Mississippi State vs. Alabama Prediction and Pick

I touched on this above, but Ben Howland's team has struggled in a particular situation this season, as an underdog and away from Starkville.

The team is 0-6 against the spread and straight up in true road games and as underdogs this season, which is something note worthy as they head on to Tuscaloosa on Wednesday night. While I do lean towards the Crimson Tide keeping the Bulldogs winless on the road, I actually see more betting value on the under.

The Tide play fast, but are trending downwards on offense, evident on Saturday when they had to scratch and claw to win 68-67 against Arkansas. The team plays at the 15th fastest pace in the country, but their effective field goal percentage is down to 48% in SEC play, 12th best in the conference. The team can't buy a bucket from deep and the visitors are an elite rebounding club.

Mississippi State likes to play slow and play inside the arc, ranking last in three-point rate in conference play. I expect coach Ben Howland is going to look to avoid getting into a track meet with Alabama and slow this game into the halfcourt, forcing the streaky Tide to shoot over their length defense.

This is all an endorsement for the under, as I believe the Tide's high powered offense is more a product of the speed at which they play rather than getting good shots. While the home team may win with margin, it will be under this expected total.

LEAN: UNDER 150

All of Reed's college basketball plays can be tracked here, his best bets column for college basketball is 62-57-3 for +2.2 units.

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