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Mississippi State vs. Alabama Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 8

By Reed Wallach

Oct 15, 2022; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Bryce Young (9) warms up
Oct 15, 2022; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Bryce Young (9) warms up / Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports
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Alabama was knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten on Saturday in Knoxville, but can they bounce back in winning fashion against Mississippi State?

The Crimson Tide have dominated the Bulldogs under Nick Saban while Mike Leach's bunch is coming off a deflating loss to Kentucky on the road as a favorite. Mississippi State has struggled away from home but is catching three touchdowns, can they hang within that massive spread?

Let's break down the odds and find the best bet:

Mississippi State vs. Alabama Odds, Spread and Total

Mississippi State vs. Alabama Betting Trends

  • Nick Saban Alabama teams are 7-12 against the spread (ATS) off a loss
  • Alabama holds a 14 game winning streak over Mississippi State
  • This is the first time Mississippi State is an underdog this season, they are 4-2-1 ATS as favorites

Mississippi State vs. Alabama Prediction and Pick

I'm not a massive proponent of backing trends blindly. I think that you can make any number justify your prior notion and use it as a confirmation bias to make a bet. Trends help tell a story, but you need to look in the right place.

Here is one: since arriving in Starkville, Mike Leach and his air raid offense have scored a total of nine points in two games against the Crimson Tide, losing 49-9 last season and 41-0 the year before that.

Saban and defensive coordinator Pete Golding clearly have an eye for how to stymie this Bulldogs offense and it has led to a blowouts on the scoreboard.

Now, factor in that Bryce Young looked fully healthy against Tennessee in the thrilling 52-49 loss, I expect the Crimson Tide to blowout the Bulldogs. With the pass game still humming, Alabama will have the full playbook available to take advantage of a leaky Miss. State defense. The team may have an above average secondary (21st in EPA/Play), the team struggles against the run, outside the top 100 in EPA/Rush.

Young will pass early to allow running back Jahmyr Gibbs to run wild later on. The Bulldogs defense is outside the top 100 in defensive line yards and yards per carry this season and will be chasing Gibbs, who is averaging north of seven yards per rush, all game long.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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