Mississippi State vs. Florida Prediction and Odds (Back the Road Dogs)

The SEC has a showdown between Mississippi State and Florida tonight, with the Bulldogs looking to climb into the top-25 by stringing together a few wins. These teams appear evenly matched, but there are trends that can be found to point towards a direction to bet.

Let’s start with the odds via WynnBET.

Mississippi State vs. Florida Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Mississippi State +6.0 (-110)
• Florida -6.0 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Mississippi State +200
• Florida -255

Total:

• 139 (Over -110/Under -110)

Mississippi State vs. Florida Prediction and Pick

Florida and Mississippi State are really similar teams. Florida is ranked 48th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 42nd in adjusted defensive efficiency, while the Bulldogs are 27th in AdjO and 83rd in AdjD. Mississippi State averages 75.6 points per game compared to Florida’s 72.5. The Bulldogs hold their opponents to 64.7 points per game, and the Gators hold theirs to 63.4.

Neither one of these teams are particularly potent from behind the arc, but Mississippi State can pour in the buckets in the short game. The Bulldogs rank 44th in two-point rate at 68.7%, whereas Florida sits at 278th at 57.4%. 

It’s evident when looking at guard Iverson Molinar’s stats how reliant this team is on the short game. He averaged 17.9 points per game while shooting 47.6%, but he’s only 30.2% from behind the arc. This team wants to score in the interior. The Bulldogs' defense ranks 16th while allowing only 29.4 points per game on two-point shots, whereas Florida ranks 273rd, giving up 38.5 points inside.

The Bulldogs are trending in the right direction coming off back-to-back wins, and I think their advantage in the paint gives them not only a great chance to cover, but a great chance to win.

Pick: Mississippi State Moneyline +200