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Mississippi State vs. LSU Prediction, Odds and Key Players for SEC Tournament Second Round (Take the Over)

College basketball betting preview, prediction and best bet for Mississippi State-LSU. 

By Shelby Dermer

Mar 9, 2024; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs guard Josh Hubbard (13) reacts to a call.
Mar 9, 2024; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs guard Josh Hubbard (13) reacts to a call. / Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
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Less than three weeks ago, LSU was overwhelmed on its home floor by Mississippi State. The Bulldogs rolled into Louisiana, poured in 40 first-half points and pulled away from the Tigers in an 87-67 win. Will history repeat itself in the SEC Tournament? 

After that matchup, Mississippi State ended the regular season with four consecutive losses while LSU won three of four. The Bulldogs are modest favorites in Nashville Thursday afternoon in the rematch. Here’s the betting breakdown of the matchup with a best bet. 

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Mississippi State vs. LSU Odds, Spread and Total

Mississippi State vs. LSU Betting Trends

  • Mississippi State is 14-16-1 ATS this season
  • LSU is 13-18 ATS this season
  • Mississippi State is 12-10-1 ATS as a favorite this season
  • LSU is 6-10 ATS as an underdog this season
  • The OVER is 16-15 in Mississippi State games this season
  • The OVER is 16-15 in LSU games this season

Mississippi State vs. LSU How to Watch

  • Date: Thursday, March 14 
  • Game time: 1 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Bridgestone Arena
  • How to watch (TV): SEC Network
  • Mississippi State record: 19-12
  • LSU record: 17-14 

Mississippi State vs. LSU Key Players to Watch

Mississippi State

Josh Hubbard: The freshman guard is the Bulldogs’ leading scorer at 16.8 points per game, but ended the regular season on an absolute tear. Hubbard has scored at least 23 points in five consecutive games, which includes two 30-point performances (32 vs. LSU). Hubbard is going to let it fly, as he ranks fifth in the SEC in field goal attempts per game (13.3). 

LSU 

Trae Hannibal: With Jalen Cook (hamstring) sidelined since Feb. 13, Hannibal has moved into the starting lineup and is coming off his best game. In Saturday’s 84-80 win over Missouri, the senior guard scored a season-high 24 points on 7-of-10 shooting. Three days earlier, Hannibal had a 10-point, 10-rebound double-double in a one-point loss to Arkansas. 

Mississippi State vs. LSU Prediction and Pick 

LSU will look for a turnaround defensively from the first meeting and could get it against a Mississippi State offense whose season-long numbers don’t reflect some struggles in conference play. The Bulldogs are No. 7 in the SEC in offensive efficiency but have struggled mightily to protect the rock.

Mississippi State is No. 286 overall in turnover percentage and No. 301 in steal percentage. Both metrics rank last in the SEC and they’ll face an LSU defense that forces the second-most turnovers in the SEC at 13 per game.

LSU, with the 19th tallest lineup in the country, should match up well around the rim with Mississippi State. However, the Bulldogs are a top-20 offensive rebounding team in the country and LSU is No. 302 in limiting second-chance opportunities.

The same advantage for LSU in the turnover front is true for the Bulldogs’ defense. Mississippi State is No. 44 in steal percentage and LSU is No. 338 in the same category as an offense.

With turnovers being the storyline for this matchup, paired with Mississippi State’s offensive rebounding prowess and 2-point shooting efficiency (No. 61 in KenPom), expect a fast and loose game between two teams that play at an above-average pace. Go with the over. 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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