Chris Jans has Mississippi State trying to climb back into the AP Top 25 after an upset of No. 8 Auburn on Saturday. The Bulldogs are just 3-4 in conference play, but both wins were against top-10 teams after defeating Tennessee at home earlier this month. Can they build on that upset on the road?
Ole Miss is in the same boat, trying to get back into the Top 25 (voted No. 30) and make it to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019. Chris Beard’s club picked up its first road conference win over the weekend, edging Texas A&M, 71-68. They are short home favorites Tuesday night.
Here’s a betting preview of the conference clash with a best bet.
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Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss odds, spread and total
Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss betting trends
- Mississippi State is 10-9-1 ATS this season
- Ole Miss is 11-9 ATS this season
- Mississippi State is 2-2 ATS as an underdog this season
- Ole Miss is 7-6 ATS as a favorite this season
- The OVER is 9-11 in Mississippi State games this season
- The OVER is 10-10 in Ole Miss games this season
Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss how to watch
- Date: Tuesday, Jan. 30
- Game time: 8:30 p.m. EST
- Venue: The Pavilion
- How to watch (TV): SEC Network
- Mississippi State record: 14-6 (3-4 SEC)
- Ole Miss record: 17-3 (4-3 SEC)
Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss key players to watch
Tolu Smith: The 6-foot-11 senior forward in his sixth collegiate season and fifth at Mississippi State after starting at Western Kentucky. Smith sat out a year but is now in his fourth season scoring double figures for the Bulldogs. Smith made his season debut on New Year’s Day after a foot injury and is averaging 17.1 points and eight rebounds per game while shooting 61% from the field. Smith was held to a season-low nine points in the win over Auburn.
Jaylen Murray: The 5-foot-11 junior guard was the Rebels’ leading scorer over the current two-game winning streak. After being held to just 8 points on a season-low 6 shot attempts against Auburn Jan. 20, Murray is letting it fly, going 14-of-29 from the field over the last two games with 37 total points and seven 3-pointers. Murray is the primary deep threat for Ole Miss, knocking down multiple triples in 10 consecutive contests.
Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss prediction and pick
Ole Miss is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country (No. 18 in KenPom), but that average plummets when the Rebels shoot from inside the arc (No. 231). That’s a bad matchup against a Mississippi State defense that is elite (No. 4) at defending the perimeter and ranks No. 11 overall in KenPom and No. 22 in effective field goal percentage.
Ole Miss has the No. 44 overall offense in KenPom, but 2-point shooting and turnovers (No. 220 in steal percentage) have hampered the Rebels.
Speaking of turnovers, Mississippi State’s offense is No. 249 in turnover percentage and No. 277 in steal percentage while struggling mightily to connect from deep (No. 282). The Bulldogs shoot a lot better from close distance but are No. 289 in free-throw shooting.
Mississippi State’s biggest advantage comes on the glass, ranking No. 34 in offensive rebounding percentage against an Ole Miss defense that is No. 346 in limiting second-chance opportunities.
However, Mississippi State’s road woes are too hard to ignore. The Bulldogs are 0-4 straight up and ATS on the road this season, which includes two outright losses (Georgia Tech and South Carolina) as a favorite and two ATS defeats while getting points (Kentucky, Florida). Take the Rebels.
Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.