Mississippi State vs. Tennessee Prediction and Odds for SEC Tournament Quarterfinals (Volunteers' Defense The Key)

The second round of the SEC Tournament gets underway as the 37-7 #2 Tennessee Volunteers take on the 18-14 #10 Mississippi State Bulldogs.

Mississippi State demolished South Carolina 73-51 last night to cover the spread for the first time in six tries while Tennessee enjoyed a bye and enters today's matchup fully rested. Winners of four straight, the Volunteers swept the season series against the Bulldogs with the first win coming by three and the second by nine.

Will Tennessee make it three in a row over their conference foe or will Mississippi State find a way to extend their season?

Let's check out the odds over at WynnBET to help us find some value:

Mississippi State vs Tennessee Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Mississippi State +8 (-110)
• Tennessee -8 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Mississippi State: +300
• Tennessee: -380

Total:

• 131 (Over -110/Under -110)

Mississippi State vs Tennessee Prediction and Pick

The Volunteers have won nine of ten, with their only loss coming to Arkansas on the road, and finished the regular season undefeated at home. They've been fantastic for bettors as a favorite this year with a 16-8 against the spread (ATS) record.

Tennessee has a number of advantages over the Bulldogs, but their largest centers around their defensive pressure. With the 13th-highest defensive turnover rate, the Volunteers' swarming defenders can take advantage of a Mississippi State offense that ranks in the 14th percentile in turnover percentage over their last five games. The Bulldogs had a combined 34 turnovers in their two losses to the #2 seed and I expect more of the same here.

Both offenses have struggled of late, with Tennessee ranking in the 3rd percentile in effective field goal percentage over their last five and Mississippi State in the 1st, but their defenses have been strong. The UNDER is 5-2 in Mississippi State's last seven as an underdog and 4-2 in the Volunteers' last six overall as a result.

I'm showing value on both the under and Tennessee here. The Bulldogs kept it close in the first matchup thanks to a 3/19 three-point shooting performance from the Volunteers, well below their season average of over 35% and unless that repeats, I see a blowout here.

By amplifying the defensive pressure and forcing Mississippi State to make outside shots (the Bulldogs rank 345th nationally in three-point shooting), Tennessee should run away with this. Give me the Volunteers and the under as the favorites advance to the SEC Semifinals.

Pick: Tennessee -8 (-110) and UNDER 131 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.