Missouri State vs. Indiana State Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Missouri Valley Quarterfinal
By Reed Wallach
Missouri State made a statement in the first game of the Missouri Valley Tournament, blitzing Murray State to the tune of a 60-35 victory.
The Bears now take on the No. 1 seed in the MVC, Indiana State, who is paced by the best offense in the conference that is centered around big man Robbie Avilia. Can Mo. State keep up, or is this the beginning of an NCAA Tournament run for the Sycamores?
Here's our full betting preview for Friday's matchup:
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Missouri State vs. Indiana State Odds, Spread and Total
Missouri State vs. Indiana State Betting Trends
- Indiana State is 17-12-1 agianst the spread (ATS) this season
- Indiana State has gone OVER in 17 of 30 games this season against Division 1 competition
- Missouri State has covered in three straight games
Indiana State vs. Missouri State How to Watch
- Date: Friday, March 8
- Game Time: 1:00 PM EST
- Venue: Enterprise Center
- How to Watch (TV): ESPN+
- Missouri State Record: 17-15
- Indiana State Record: 26-5
Missouri State vs. Indiana State Key Players to Watch
Indiana State
Robbie Avilia: The sophomore big man has averaged 17 points per game with nearly seven rebounds, but he is also a willing passer, dishing out about four assists. Avilia has dominated the MVC all season, including a 24 point outing with 10 rebounds and four assists against Missouri State in a 22-point home win.
Missouri State
Alston Mason: Mason is the straw that stirs the drink for the Missouri State offense. Fresh off a 22-point outing against Murray State in which he got to the free throw line 10 times, Mason will look to shine yet again against Indiana State. While he shot below 30% from the field in the first meeting, he scored 26 in a two point home loss to the Sycamores on Feb. 8.
Missouri State vs. Indiana State Prediction and Pick
The Bears gave the Trees a scare on the road a few weeks back, and I believe there are some schematic edges for the underdog in this one to keep it close, even with the quick turnaround.
Missouri State's positional size and ability to ball screen at any position can put the likes of Avilia into dangerous situations on defense. The Bears were the worst MVC shooting team from beyond the arc, but the team is more of a rim running team as well, the 42nd best team at finishing around the rim, per Haslametrics.
On the other side, Indiana State's offense is incredibly dynamic, tops in effective field goal percentage in Missouri Valley play, but the Bears do a good job of containing the paint and letting teams hoist from the perimeter. While the Sycamores are a dangerous 3-point shooting bunch, the Bears contest it very well, inside the top 100 in the country in terms of open 3 rate, per ShotQuality.
Missouri State's ability to get inside against Indiana State's defense should keep this game competitive, I'll take the points in the opening game of the MVC Friday slate.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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