Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Preview: Prediction, Odds, Standings and Schedule

Who's ready for the 2022 edition of "Arch Madness?"

The city of St. Louis welcomes the 10 teams out of the Missouri Valley Conference as this year's tournament tips off Thursday night from the Enterprise Center at 6 p.m. CT (local time). No. 9 Indiana State takes on No. 8 Illinois State, followed by No. 10 Evansville against No. 8 Valparaiso in the 8:30 p.m. game.

The Loyola Chicago Ramblers, despite finishing fourth in the conference are the consensus favorites at WynnBET Sportsbook at +135. Top-seeded Northern Iowa holds the No. 1 overall seed, but are second in conference tournament odds at +375.

Loyola Chicago remains a bubble team, currently projected to be a 12-seed at BracketMatrix. Earlier on Tuesday, ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi moved Loyola Chicago from his "Last Four In" to "First Four Out" after San Diego State likely punched their at-large bid to the NCAA men's tournament with a road win at Wyoming on Monday evening.

Let’s dive into everything you need to know about the MVC tournament, beginning with the odds via WynnBET Sportsbook:

Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Odds

• Loyola Chicago: +135
• Northern Iowa: +375
• Missouri State +400
• Drake +500
• Bradley +700
• Southern Illinois +1400
• Valparaiso +7500
• Indiana State +10000
• Illinois State +10000
• Evansville +50000

Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Standings and Bracket

Here’s a look at the standings and bracket for the MVC Tournament. 

Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Schedule (Dates, Times, Channel)

Here's how the calendar shapes up for the 2022 MVC Tournament. All games Thursday and Friday will be broadcast on Bally Sports Midwest, with the Loyola vs. Bradley matchup on NBC Sports Chicago.

Saturday's matchups will be available on CBS Sports Network and the CBS Sports app. Sunday, CBS will carry the championship at noon.

All times are CT in St. Louis.

Thursday, March 3, 2022 - MVC Tournament Opening Round

• 6:00 pm: No. 9 Indiana State vs. No. 8 Illinois State - GAME 1
• 8:30 pm: No. 10 Evansville vs. No. 7 Valparaiso - GAME 2

Friday, March 4, 2022 - MVC Tournament Quarterfinals

• Noon: No. 1 Northern Iowa vs. Winner of No. 9 Indiana State vs. No. 8 Illinois State - GAME 3
• 2:30 pm: No. 4 Loyola vs. No. 5 Bradley - GAME 4
• 6:00 pm: No. 2 Missouri State vs. winner of No. 10 Evansville vs. No. 7 Valparaiso - GAME 5
• 8:30 pm: No. 3 Drake vs. No. 6 Southern Illinois - GAME 6

Saturday, March 5, 2022 - MVC Tournament Semifinals

• 2:30 pm: Winner of Game 3 vs. Winner of Game 4 - GAME 7
• 5:00 pm: Winner of Game 5 vs. Winner of Game 6 - GAME 8

Sunday, March 6, 2022 - MVC Tournament Final

• Noon: - Winner of Game 7 vs. Winner of Game 8 - GAME 9

Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Prediction and Pick

On Tuesday's BetSided "Best Bets" video below, I made my case for the No. 2 seeded Missouri State Bears to be crowned "Arch Madness" champs while they were still listed at WynnBET at odds of +550.

That number has since moved to +400, still third behind Loyola Chicago and Northern Iowa, but certainly way down from where they were. Is it because our savvy crew and discussion moved the line? Almost assuredly not, but there's plenty of reason to buy in on the Bears at very favorable odds.

First, during the NCAA Tournament, we always discuss the matchups and how a 3-seed in one region may have a far better draw than a 1-seed in another. The same can be said in the MVC, as Missouri State holds the No. 2 seed, likely forcing the two best teams in Loyola Chicago (No. 4) and Northern Iowa (No. 1) to eliminate the other out in the process.

Then, there's the numbers themselves. Missouri State leads the Missouri Valley (No. 22 overall) in adjusted offensive efficiency at KenPom, while ranking third in effective field goal percentage, No. 1 in turnovers, and they shoot lights out from the free throw line at 79.6%.

Defensively, Bradley's been excellent, but Missouri State comes in second in opponent's effective FG % while also ranking tops in the league in two-point percentage.

Here's how KenPom ranks every team in the MVC on both offense and defense

Lastly, when it comes to individual talent on the court, it's hard to determine two better players than Missouri State's top two guys in junior Isiaih Mosley and senior forward Gaige Prim. Both made first team All Missouri Valley this year, as Mosley averaged 20 points a game while shooting just under 44% from three-point range.

The Bears are super efficient on the offensive end, take care of the basketball and make free throws down the stretch. Defensively, they may not be elite, but they're nowhere near the bottom either. Ultimately, with the right combinations of scheduling, scheme, and talent on the floor, I think they're a terrific bet to cut down the nets and make it to the Tournament.

PICK: Missouri State (+400)

Missouri Conference Tournament Dark Horse

Southern Illinois (+1400) is the top three-point shooting team in the conference, while also ranking top three in adjusted defensive efficiency. They match up in the final game of the quarterfinals Friday against Drake where they lost both games this season by an average of 1.5 points.

I'll likely be betting the Salukis to upset the Bulldogs, which would set up a very interesting matchup with my pick of Missouri State to win it all. But when you shoot amongst the best three-point shooting teams in the country while showing up on both sides of the ball, you've got as good of a chance as anyone in this type of environment.

Dark Horse Lean: SIU +1400

Follow all of Ben Heisler's betting plays in real-time HERE.