Missouri vs. Auburn Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 4
By Reed Wallach
Bryan Harsin's seat is getting warmer after a blowout loss to Penn State at home, but can he get the Tigers on track as they start SEC play?
Auburn plays host to Missouri in each team's respective SEC opener with a new quarterback upon the news that T.J. Finley is missing this game with an injury. The line didn't move much off the news, so maybe the Tigers still have a path to clear victory?
Source: Auburn quarterback T.J. Finley will not be available for the SEC opener this weekend against Missouri due to a shoulder injury. Unclear if it’ll keep him out beyond this weekend, though.
— Tom Green (@Tomas_Verde) September 20, 2022
Let's break down the odds and find the best bet.
Missouri vs. Auburn Odds, Spread and Total
Missouri vs. Auburn Betting Trends
- Auburn is 0-3 against the spread (ATS) this season
- Auburn is 2-1 to the OVER this season
- Missouri went UNDER in their only game as an underdog this season
Missouri vs. Auburn Prediction and Pick
I'm not turned off of the Auburn side despite the injury to Finley. While talented, he is prone to poor decisions and turnovers throughout the course of the game and I don't see much of a drop off from him to either run-first quarterback Robby Ashford or Texas A&M Zach Calzada.
This also means that Auburn is going to be more likely to feed its No. 1 running back Tank Bigsby. He rushed for over 1,000 yards last season and is averaging over six yards per carry in 2022. This is a Missouri defense that is middling against the run and is undersized up front compared to the Auburn offensive line.
We saw Kansas State run all over Missouri in Week 2, averaging 5.47 yards per carry, and I can see Harsin leaning on a similar script given the edge they have at tailback.
While the score looks lopsided against Penn State, 41-12, the visitors were able to hit a few explosive plays that tipped the scales as well as play with far better field position. I don't envision this being the case against Missouri and this can allow Auburn's defensive line that is top 15 in DLine Yards to shine.
As mentioned on The Early Reed, I used Auburn in a moneyline parlay with San Jose State, but I do think the home team gets the cover and wins with ease on Saturday afternoon.