Missouri vs. Mississippi State Prediction and Odds (Back Bulldogs to Snap Their 4-Game Skid)

The Mississippi State Bulldogs return home after a two game trip as they welcome the Missouri Tigers to Starkville as double-digit favorites.

After a 4-2 start in the SEC, it's been rough sledding for the Bulldogs as they've gone just 1-5 since; hoping to break a four-game losing streak in the process.

Meanwhile, the Tigers have gotten two of their four conference victories in their last four games, but have been underdogs in 19 of their 24 games this season; going 9-10 against the spread.

These two teams will also play again on Sunday when they swap locations and head to Columbia.

Here are the latest odds for Round 1 over at WynnBET Sportsbook.

Missouri vs. Mississippi State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

• Missouri +11 (-110)
• Mississippi State -11 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Missouri +500
• Mississippi State -700

Total:

• 134 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

Missouri vs. Mississippi State Prediction and Pick

Even with a large spread and a four-game losing streak, I like the Bulldogs to snap out of it this evening and come out hot against the Tigers to cover the 11 points.

The Bulldogs, despite road loses, have covered in their last two games, fighting all the way to the end against LSU, the No. 2 adjusted KenPom defensive efficiency team in the country, and a very good Alabama team that's played the toughest schedule in the country.

The Bulldogs are a top 30 offensive efficient team in college basketball, ranking 29th in the latest KenPom metrics. That's not always the easiest thing to do when you rank 280 in three-point percentage, but they make up for it with smart shots near the basketball, shooting just under 53% inside the line. They also get a ton of offensive rebounds, making up for missed outside shots and gaining extra possessions.

The Tigers are one of the worst three-point shooting teams in all of college basketball, ranking in the bottom 12 of the league at 28.6% per game. They turn the ball over more than 21 times a game, and don't take smart shots with an effective field goal percentage of 47.5%.

The Tigers under Cuonzo Martin were supposed to be an improved defensive unit, but they're very much middle of the back in college basketball. If they can't defend and can't make shots, the Bulldogs should run them out of the gym by the first half. 11 points is a large number to hit in conference, but this matchup doesn't bode well for Mizzou and I like the Bulldogs to cover comfortably.

PICK: Mississippi State (-11)

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