MLB Best Bets for Every Game Today (October 19)

The ALCS gets underway on Wednesday night, and baseball fans were treated to a close game in Game 1 of the NLCS on Tuesday night. 

Now, with both the American and National League in action, we have a pair of best bets to make. 

The New York Yankees didn’t get a day off between the ALDS and ALCS when they take on the Houston Astros tonight, while the Philadelphia Phillies are looking to steal both games in San Diego in the NLCS. 

Here are my favorite bets for each game on Wednesday, Oct. 19:  

New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros Prediction and Best Bet

• Pick: Astros -1.5 (+115)

Game 1 of the ALCS brings an interesting pitching matchup, as Astros ace Justin Verlander (18-4, 1.75 ERA) matches up with Jameson Taillon (14-5, 3.91 ERA). The Astros have the clear advantage here, as this is Taillon’s first career start in the postseason, but Verlander was roughed up in Game 1 of the ALDS. 

The Yankees are riding high off of a win on Tuesday, but there are a ton of concerns about this offense. 

The Yankees failed to record more than six hits in any of their games in the ALDS, registering just a .182 batting average. 

That’s going to be problematic against a vaunted Astros pitching staff, especially since New York doesn’t have its rotation lined up the way it would like. Instead of Gerrit Cole going Game 1, New York is turning to its No. 4 starter in Taillon. 

Houston had the best bullpen in baseball this season, and we’ve seen the Yankees’ pen struggle at times already in the playoffs, specifically in Games 2 and 3 of the ALDS. With Taillon on the mound here, I don’t see New York matching Verlander on the mound. 

If the Yankees don’t hit a bunch of homers, they’re going to be in trouble tonight. 

Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres Prediction and Best Bet

• Pick: Aaron Nola OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-106)

Aaron Nola has been terrific for the Phillies this season even though his win-loss record doesn’t reflect that. 

Nola pitched against the Padres once in the 2022 regular season, punching out 10 batters across seven innings of work. So far this postseason, he’s cleared this line with six strikeouts in both of his starts. When you go back to the regular season, Nola has six or more K’s in six straight starts. 

There’s no doubt when looking at Nola’s advanced numbers that he’s an elite strikeout pitcher. He is in the 85th percentile in strikeout percentage, 90th percentile in chase rate and 68th percentile in whiff percentage.   

San Diego was 11th in baseball in strikeouts per game in the regular season, but it averaged 8.32 per contest. Nola should be able to get to six, especially if he pitches six or more innings once again.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.