MLB Best Bets for Every Playoff Game Today (October 11)
If the excitement of the wild card games in Major League Baseball don’t have you fired up for the ALDS and NLDS, I suggest you get fired up. Right now.
We have a full day of playoff baseball, with four games starting with the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies at noon EST. The BetSided team has broken down every game on our MLB picks page, but why not share all of our best bets in one spot for y’all?
Here’s how we’re leaning for each Game 1 in the Division Series:
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Phillies ML (+164)
Starting off with an upset!
The two NL East opponents have seen each other plenty of times this season, and I think the current odds are a complete overreaction. The Phillies have been one of the hottest teams in baseball dating back to September, and don't deserve to be this big of underdogs against any team, even the defending World Series champs.
The Braves are 2-2 in Max Fried starts against the Phillies this season, and he has a 3.13 ERA against them in those games. That 3.13 ERA may not seem bad, but it's a higher number than his season-long ERA of 2.48.
Meanwhile, Ranger Suarez' ERA gets better when he faces the Braves. He has a 3.65 ERA on the season, but a 3.21 record against the Braves.
Sure, the Braves are a better team, but the Phillies are hot and are riding the moment of a wild card win over the Cardinals. I'll take my shot on Philadelphia as an underdog. – Iain MacMillan
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Astros -1.5 (+112)
The Mariners have a solid group at the top of their rotation, and Logan Gilbert may have the best stuff of all of them, striking out 174 batters in 185.2 innings this season.
Still, facing Justin Verlander is not an easy task, and the AL Cy Young candidate has been downright dominant over his last 15 starts, posting a 1.26 ERA.
I think there is value in backing the Astros here, as they’ve won 11 of Verlander’s last 15 starts and all 11 wins have come by two or more runs.
Gilbert also has a tendency to have a start where he can blow up, which is certainly possible in his first ever postseason start, on the road, against a proven veteran team. – Peter Dewey
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Guardians First Five Innings Moneyline (+172)
Maybe Gerrit Cole has figured things out in the playoffs, but I’m not willing to bet on it if he’s in a Yankee uniform.
Cole’s issue for New York, especially lately, has been the long ball, specifically early in games. Cole has given up at least one home run in eight straight starts, and he has allowed 12 homers over that stretch. That’s simply not going to get it done in a playoff atmosphere.
Now, he’s facing a red-hot pitcher in Cal Quantrill, who has nine straight starts where he’s allowed three or fewer runs. Quantrill has a 2.32 ERA over that stretch and the Guardians have won eight of those starts.
I’m not sure if Cleveland holds on for the full game, but I’m willing to fade Cole in the first five innings and take the Guardians and Quantrill to lead early. Until Cole’s homer issues dissipate, he’s a huge risk to give up early runs, especially at Yankee Stadium. – Peter Dewey
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-108)
Mike Clevinger gets the start for the Padres, and that's bad news for anyone who wants to back San Diego with their money. He has three starts against the Dodgers this season, and he gave up 14 earned runs in only 13 innings pitched for an ERA of 9.69.
That's terrible, to say the least.
The downside of the playing in the wild card round, especially when you go the full three games, is you have to start the back-end of your rotation in the second round and hope they can survive. Throwing Clevinger out is basically surrendering the opening game, and hoping you can come back against the Dodgers when you get back to the top of your rotation.
I'm in no rush to back the Padres in Game 1. I could be sold on them winning some later games in this series, but a rested Dodgers squad will make easy work of San Diego, like they have all season. – Iain MacMillan
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.