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MLB Best Bets for Thursday, Aug. 1 (Target Seth Lugo, Sonny Gray)

Here’s a pair of best bets in Major League Baseball on Thursday. 

By Shelby Dermer

Jul 27, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Seth Lugo (67) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Chicago Cubs at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 27, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Seth Lugo (67) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Chicago Cubs at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports / Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
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The arrival of August brings the return of the National Football League in the Hall of Fame Game, but it’s a relatively light travel day in Major League Baseball with only 10 teams in action. 

Here are two best bets to consider for Thursday’s limited slate on the diamond. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

MLB Best Bets for Thursday, Aug. 1 

  • Seth Lugo UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed
  • Sonny Gray UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed 

Seth Lugo UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed (+105)

You can also Lugo to allowed under 2.5 earned runs (-160) or over 4.5 strikeouts (-170) with heavy juice, but getting the hits prop at plus-money is too good to pass up in this matchup given Lugo’s dominance over the division.

In eight starts against AL Central foes this season, Lugo is 6-0 with a 1.34 ERA and has allowed one earned run or less seven times. From a hits perspective, Lugo has gone under this prop five times, which includes an April gem against Detroit when he tossed seven innings of three-hit shutout baseball in a win over the Tigers. 

Detroit ranks 26th in the majors in hits per game and members of the Tigers' lineup are hitting a collective .211 (4-for-19) against Lugo.

Sonny Gray UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-160)

After a sizzling June (3.53 ERA over six starts), Gray was beaten up a bit with a 6.75 ERA over four July starts. He can start August off on the right track, though, in a visit to Wrigley Field on Thursday. 

The Cubs may have exploded for 13 runs in their series-finale win in Cincinnati on Wednesday, but it’s a short turnaround for a sub-par offense facing a pitcher they’ve struggled with this season. The Cubs rank 26th in baseball and second worst in the National League in runs per game at home (3.98) heading into this matchup. 

From his previous stop in Cincinnati, Gray is very familiar with the Cubs, posting a 5-4 career record and a 2.86 ERA in 13 starts against them. This season, Gray has allowed three earned runs over 12 innings in two starts against Chicago. 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change. 

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