Betsided

MLB Best Bets for Thursday, Sept. 12 (Target Mitchell Parker, Frankie Montas)

Here are three best bets in Major League Baseball on Thursday. 

By Shelby Dermer

Sep 7, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Washington Nationals pitcher Mitchell Parker (70) throws to the Pittsburgh Pirates in the fourth inning of the second game of a double header at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Philip G. Pavely-Imagn Images
Sep 7, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Washington Nationals pitcher Mitchell Parker (70) throws to the Pittsburgh Pirates in the fourth inning of the second game of a double header at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Philip G. Pavely-Imagn Images / Philip G. Pavely-Imagn Images
facebooktwitterreddit

There are just a few weeks left in the MLB regular season. While there are several teams gearing up for late-season playoff pushes, others are turning their sights toward 2025. 

The good news is that you can bet on any matchup, whether it involves a contender or not. Betting baseball on a daily basis is a six-month grind but we’re nearing the finish line and it’s time to go out strong. 

Here are three best bets to consider when locking in those baseball wagers Thursday. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

MLB Best Bets for Thursday, Sept. 12 

  • Mitchell Parker OVER 16.5 Outs Recorded 
  • Nestor Cortes OVER 4.5 Hits Allowed 
  • Frankie Montas To Record a Win

Mitchell Parker OVER 16.5 Outs Recorded 

The Miami Marlins are nearing a 100-loss season and their putrid offense has been held to two runs or less five times over the last nine games (3-6 overall). We’re going to take advantage by betting on Washington left-hander Mitchell Parker, who has gone over this recorded outs prop in four of his last seven starts. 

Parker faces a Miami offense that is last in the National League and 29th in baseball in runs per game (3.81) and put up just 3.41 on the road (also 29th in the MLB). The Marlins are 27th in the league in hitting against left-handed pitching, putting up just a .227 batting average. Miami has struck out the third-most times (407) in the league against lefties, too, so it might be worth taking a plus-money shot for Parker to go over his 5.5 strikeout prop (+110) on Thursday. 

Only four players in Miami’s lineup have faced Parker before and they’ve gone a collective 0-for-11 against him with no walks. In two starts against the Marlins this season, Parker hit this prop once, tossing six innings of one-run ball June 16. In a previous start April 27, Parker allowed just one earned over four innings, but was pulled with a high pitch count (82).

Nestor Cortes OVER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-140)

Cortes returns to the starting role Thursday night to take on the Boston Red Sox. Cortes was stellar (4 ⅓ shutout innings) out of the bullpen Sept. 7. Cortes toes the slab at Yankees Stadium Thursday, a venue where he’s posted a 3.19 ERA this season in 14 starts. 

However, Cortes was knocked around in his previous start against Boston July 26, permitting four earned runs on nine hits over 4 ⅔ innings. Going back to a great outing (6 innings, one run) against Boston July 5, Cortes has gone over this hits prop in five of 10 starts. 

As expected, Boston’s lineup has a ton of experience against the left-hander. Collectively, the Red Sox are hitting .316 (25-for-79) off Cortes. 

Frankie Montas To Record a Win (+145)

We’re taking a shot at plus-money with Montas in this one, rather than bet on him to complete at least six innings with an over bet on his recorded outs prop (17.5). Despite a 1-2 record in his last four starts, Montas has gone at least six innings in all four of them. 

Montas posted a 3.82 ERA in August and kept that momentum in his last outing Sept. 6, posting a quality start and a season-high 10 strikeouts against Colorado. The Giants’ middle-of-the-road offense put up 13 runs in Wednesday’s win over Milwaukee, so the Brewers will be banking on Montas to help out a bullpen that just had to piece together 12 outs. 

On the other side, Milwaukee’s offense is eighth in the MLB in runs per game on the road (4.96) and faces San Francisco right-hander Hayden Birdsong on Thursday. Birdsong allowed five earned runs in just 3 ⅔ innings Aug. 29 against Milwaukee.

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

Home/MLB Picks