Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Back Edward Cabrera, This Total Bet in Yankees-Orioles)
By Peter Dewey
It’s a travel day in Major League Baseball, so there are only six games in action, limiting our options to bet.
Still, there are a few plays that I think are worth making, including some props for young pitchers Edward Cabrera and Kyle Harrison.
No matter how you plan to bet on Major League Baseball, the BetSided team has you covered with our MLB Best Bets, Best MLB Props and straight up picks for every game, every day.
Here’s a look at how I’ll be betting on baseball on May 2:
MLB Best Bets Today for May 2
- Edward Cabrera OVER 6.5 Strikeouts
- New York Yankees-Baltimore Orioles UNDER 9
- Kyle Harrison OVER 15.5 Outs Recorded
Edward Cabrera OVER 6.5 Strikeouts
Miami Marlins starter Edward Cabrera is one of the better strikeout pitchers in baseball, and now he takes on a Colorado Rockies team that strikes out the sixth most times in the league in 2024.
Cabrera has a 5.28 ERA this season, but he’s punched out 21 batters in 15.1 innings. He’s also due for some positive regression, as his Fielding Independent Pitching sits at 2.42 through three starts.
The young righty has seven or more strikeouts in two of his three starts, and I think he’s primed to bounce back after allowing six runs (five earned) across 4.1 innings in his last start.
Colorado is prone to the strikeout, and Statcast has Cabrera clocking in with some impressive numbers through his three starts. He’s in the 88th percentile in strikeout percentage, 74th in whiff percentage and 97th in chase rate.
I think he shuts down this Rockies offense on Thursday afternoon.
New York Yankees-Baltimore Orioles UNDER 9
The New York Yankees are aiming to split their four-game set with the Baltimore Orioles in what has been a low-scoring matchup with two, six and two runs scored in the first three games.
Baltimore has yet to announce a starter for this one, but the Yankees will have Carlos Rodon on the mound (2-1, 2.48 ERA).
Rodon has been solid in 2024, allowing three or fewer earned runs in every one of his starts, including just three hits and one earned run over his last two outings (13.0 innings of work).
New York’s offense exploded against the Milwaukee Brewers, but it’s come back to earth against Baltimore, easily falling short of this total in each game. On the season, the UNDER is 19-12-1 in the Yankees’ 32 games.
Even though we don’t know Baltimore’s starter, both of these teams have bullpen ERA’s that are sub-3.70 on the season.
I think a total of nine is a little too high in this matchup.
Kyle Harrison OVER 15.5 Outs Recorded
San Francisco Giants youngster Kyle Harrison has pitched well this season, leading the team to a 4-2 record in his six outings while posting a 4.09 ERA and 3.86 FIP.
He’s thrown exactly six innings in four of his starts, yet he’s +125 to get through 5.1 innings on Thursday against the Boston Red Sox.
Boston has been decent against lefties this season, ranking No. 12 in the league in OPS against them, but Harrison has just two outings where he’s fallen short of this outs recorded prop.
Plus, the Giants allowed him to throw a season-high 93 pitches in his last outing. These props can be tough to predict if the team has a quick hook, but Harrison has recorded 18 four times this season. There’s no way this should be the price for his prop on Thursday.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.