Betsided

MLB Best Bets Today (Back Luis Garcia At Home Against Yankees)

By Donnavan Smoot

New York Mets v Houston Astros
New York Mets v Houston Astros / Carmen Mandato/GettyImages
facebooktwitterreddit

We got back to our winning ways and had a positive night on Wednesday. Julio Urias and Alek Manoah came through for us and got us wins. I thought fading Ranger Suarez was the play to make, but he proved me completely wrong. 

Today, I'm breaking down the pitching matchup for Astros-Yankees and going to Wrigley Field for my last pick.

Let’s get right into the bets for today, with odds coming from consensus lines and WynnBET Sportsbook. 

MLB Best Bets Today

  • Luis Severino UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-132)
  • Luis Garcia OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-160)
  • Kyle Hendricks OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-108)

Luis Severino UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-132)

This is a complete fade of not only Severino, but the stats that say to back him. Severino has cleared this line in five straight starts – including one against the Astros. However, I’m fading him because the Astros are one of the toughest teams to strike out and I don’t think he’ll crush them in consecutive starts. Houston strikes out 20% of the time, the fourth-lowest rate in the league. They just saw Severino last week and are now at home. I expect them to make a few adjustments and get revenge tonight. 

Luis Garcia OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-160)

Garcia has cleared this line in his last three starts and four of the last five. As great as the Yankees’ lineup has been this season, they are middle of the pack when it comes to strikeout rate. Garcia will certainly have his opportunities to get New York swinging and missing.

Garcia is averaging 6.3 strikeouts per start at home, compared to 5.1 strikeouts per start on the road. He’ll be in the comfort of Minute Maid Park, so expect him to be dealing tonight. 

Kyle Hendricks OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-108)

Hendricks, after a poor start to the month, has been dealing in his last three starts. He’s easily surpassed this line in all three, throwing 18 Ks in 16.2 innings. He’s been efficient and he’s even stayed on the mound for over seven innings. The Reds are just outside the bottom third in strikeout rate, setting up another great day for Hendricks. If he can stay on the field, I like him to clear this number. 

You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.

Home/MLB Picks