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MLB Best Bets Today (Back Padres Early Against Rockies)

By Donnavan Smoot

Aug 3, 2022; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres right fielder Juan Soto (22) hits a single
Aug 3, 2022; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres right fielder Juan Soto (22) hits a single / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
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We did it again last night. We had a perfect 3-0 day, with Jose Urquidy smashing his strikeout total, the Dodgers dominating the Giants and Shohei Ohtani’s night ending quickly – even though I’m not happy about Ohtani getting injured.

Today, I’m following the same blueprint as yesterday. We’re going with one strikeout prop, a run line pick and an UNDER on a total outs recorded.

All odds listed are via consensus sportsbooks. 

MLB Best Bets Today

  • Sonny Gray UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-128) – FanDuel Sportsbook
  • Padres F5  -0.5 vs. Rockies (-170) – Caesars Sportsbook
  • Justin Verlander UNDER 19.5 Outs Recorded (-125) – BetMGM Sportsbook

Sonny Gray UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-128) – FanDuel Sportsbook

Gray has hit the UNDER in six of his last 10 starts, and today is setting up for another low day. The Blue Jays have one of the best offenses in the league and are one of the toughest teams to strikeout. Toronto only strikes out 20.6% of the time, good for sixth-best in the majors. 

Gray’s ERA also increases by 1.16 when pitching at home. He hasn’t been able to capitalize on home-field advantage this year, leading me to take the UNDER.

Padres -0.5 vs. Rockies (-170) – Caesars Sportsbook

The Padres have completely dominated this series against the Rockies and I think that domination continues tonight with Joe Musgrove on the mound. Musgrove has a top 15 ERA and WHIP and is coming off a good start against the Twins – only allowing 2 runs and striking out eight batters.

With Juan Soto in the mix, San Diego’s lineup just received a jolt of energy. The Padres were already riding high against the Rockies. With a home game and a chance to sweep, I like them to get the job done. 

However, I want to put my faith in Musgrove today and trust that the Padres will come out firing. I’ll take the F5 run line. Although it’s a little juiced, I can save myself the sweat of a late game bad beat. 

Justin Verlander UNDER 19.5 Outs Recorded (-125) – BetMGM Sportsbook

I went with a prop like this yesterday with Shohei Ohtani and I’m going back to the well with Verlander. Over his last 5 starts, Verlander has gone under this number twice. While you may take that as a sign to take the OVER, he’s coming off a near 8-inning performance. The Astros will be sure to manage his pitches and keep him fresh for the final stretch of the season. 

Also, our Iain MacMillan wrote how Verlander is consistently worse come August. If Verlander continues to have end of summer struggles, I like for his day to end early.

You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.

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