Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Back Royals Over Brewers, This Zack Wheeler Prop)
By Peter Dewey
Monday is a travel day in Major League Baseball, but there are still 10 games in action, including the return of Los Angeles Dodgers starter Walker Buehler from Tommy John surgery.
Buehler has not pitched since 2022, but he’ll get the ball tonight against the Miami Marlins in Los Angeles. Does he make today’s MLB Best Bets?
There are a few plays that I’m looking at for today’s action, such as an early player prop for Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler.
Let’s break down each of these bets for Monday:
MLB Best Bets Today for May 6
- Zack Wheeler UNDER 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed
- Seattle Mariners-Minnesota Twins NRFI
- Kansas City Royals Moneyline vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Zack Wheeler UNDER 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed
Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler has been lights out in 2024, posting a 1.91 ERA and 2.61 Fielding Independent Pitching in his seven starts.
Yet, the Phillies are just 3-4 in those games.
So, I’m looking to the prop market to back Wheeler, who has allowed just seven hits and one earned run over his last three outings (18.1 innings of work).
The San Francisco Giants – Wheeler’s opponent today – are just 19th in the league in OPS, and I think they’ll struggle against the righty who has allowed one or fewer earned runs in five of his seven starts in 2024.
We’re getting this prop at plus money, which I think is a great value given Wheeler’s dominance as of late. The Phillies ace enters this game in the 92nd percentile in expected ERA and the 90th percentile in expected opponent batting average against.
He’s been red hot, so trust him on Monday.
Seattle Mariners-Minnesota Twins NRFI
The best No Run First Inning Team in Major League Baseball this season is…
… the Seattle Mariners!
Seattle has finished 68 percent of its games without a run for either side in the first innings, so why not go back to the well with ace Luis Castillo on the mound tonight?
Castillo has a 1.29 ERA in the first inning this season, allowing just five hits in seven appearances. He takes on Minnesota Twins starter Simeon Woods Richardson, who has yet to allow a baserunner in the first inning across his three starts in 2024.
While I don’t have as much confidence in Woods Richardson as I would Castillo, the Twins youngster has posted a 2.45 ERA and a 2.20 FIP this season.
I expect both starters to get off to strong starts in the first frame tonight.
Kansas City Royals Moneyline vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Kansas City Royals ace Cole Ragans is on the bump for the eighth time this season on Monday, and he’s in a prime spot to shut down a Milwaukee Brewers offense that has struggled against lefties all season long.
The Brewers are just 26th in MLB in OPS against left-handed pitching, and Ragans has been one of the best in baseball this season, posting a 3.44 ERA, 2.15 Fielding Independent Pitching and striking out 46 batters in 36.2 innings of work.
He takes on Bryse Wilson (2-1, 3.00 ERA), who could be due for some regression when one looks at his FIP, which sits at 4.57 on the season.
Wilson has started and worked out of the pen this season, so it’s likely we’ll see a lot of the Brewers’ bullpen (3.66 ERA) in this matchup.
Even though Kansas City is just 3-4 in Ragans’ starts, it hasn’t been because he’s pitched poorly. I’ll trust the young lefty to get it done on Monday night.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.